Awesome analysis Mickey.
Thanks.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Mickey" <mickeycrimm@...> wrote:
>
> The way I would play the game W2-G's would not be a factor. At least not for quarters. The keno component is actually a postive influence on the video poker component. It raises the expected return of the game. Let's see if we can capture ALL of that positive influence.
>
> First, I would have to have an incentive to play the game. A promotion or whatever that would put the game above the 100% threshold. Cashback is the best one I can think off at the moment. Maybe a multiplier cashback day.
>
> I'm gonna use 8/5 Bonus Poker, one of the games the Wiz put in the payback chart, for an example. First we're gonna list the top five paying games according to the number of spots played. And the game is quarter denom with a ten coin keno bet.
>
> 1. 8/5 with 10-spot......99.658%
> 2. 8/5 with 9-spot.......99.658%
> 3. 8/5 with 6-spot.......99.633%
> 4. 8/5 with 4-spot.......99.615%
> 5. 8/5 with 3-spot.......99.592%
>
> The 10-spot and the 9-spot are actually tied for first place. So let's get at it! Let's play those 10-spots and 9-spots....Not! Here's the little problem. The frequency for cathing a solid ten spot is about 8.9 million to one. Not exactly hittable odds. And the frequency for catching the solid nine is 1.4 million. Not exactly hittable odds either. So if we discont out the payback for the solid ten and the solid nine what would the ranking look like?
>
> 1. 8/5 with 6-spot........99.633%
> 2. 8/5 with 4-spot........99.615%
> 3. 8/5 with 10-spot.......99.602%
> 4. 8/5 with 3-spot........99.592%
> 5. 8/5 with 9-spot........99.219%
>
> The ten spot has dropped to third place and the nine spot to 5th place. Another problem with the ten-spot is the 9 out of ten frequency is 164,000. I just don' like shooting at anything with such extreme odds. Discount out the payback for 9/10 and it drops the ten-spot payback to about 98%.
>
> "So now the 6-spot is at the top of the heap. So let's get at it! Let's hit some six-spots!"
>
> "Well....not so fast there, pardner."
>
> The frequency for the six-spot is 7753. The payoff is 8750 coins. So 8750 coins divided by the total wager of 77530 coins is 11%. That's one helluva drain between six spot hits. No, I don't think I like the six-spot.
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> That leaves the 4-spot and the 3-spot. I think it's six of one and a half dozen of the other as far as which one to play. They both offer a way to capture all of the intrinsic value of the keno component in the short term.
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> The 4-spot is just 1.8 hundreths less payback than the six-spot but carries one helluva lot less variance. It has to do with the frequencies involved. The 4-spot offers, by far, the best "hit rate" of any of the number of spots you can play. The hit rate is the chance of catching "something." Here are the chances of catching:
>
> 2/4.........4.7
> 3/4........23.1
> 4/4.......326.4
>
> When you average these frequencies together you will see that you will hit something, whether it's 2/4, 3/4, 4/4, every 3.86 games. The 7-spot has a hit rate up around 5, the ten-spot up around 6. The rest are even higher. So with the 4-spot you keep those multipliers coming at a steady rate. And the biggest cycle you are dealing with to capture all of the value is 326.4.
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> The 3-spot has a hit rate of 6.55. But the biggest cycle you are dealing with to capture all of the value is 72.07. And for quarter and dollar players there are no W2-G's involved on the keno side.
>
> Playing 4-spots and 3-spots might not be very exciting to some people, but it is the way to capture all of the value in the short term.
>
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