Confusus say extremely bad things can happen in honest games but they're sure to happen when you're being cheated. The way to look at it is not to put blinders over your eyes or to think you won't be cheated because you want to believe they (the casinos) wouldn't cheat. Let's look at this in a mathematical way. Bayes theorem is a powerful tool for this. For the player who played 2900 original hands of QQ without a dealt quad. Let's say that before he played those hands he estimated a 99.9% chance that the game is honest and a 0.1% chance that he is being cheated. If the game is honest he would go 2900 hands without a dealt quad about once in 1100. Without going into deep math Bayes Theorem would say that the chance that the game is honest after going 2900 hands without a dealt quad=((1/1100)/((1/1100)+(1/1000)))=10/21=47.6%. - WOW! Think of a lot of the cheating that has happened before: American Coin, 1919 Chicago White Sox, fixed boxing matches, insider trading, the Pennsylvania lottery years ago, Lance Armstrong, Marion Jones, steroids in sports. These are instances where the cheating was caught. Think of the cases where bribes and payoffs were made and the cheating was never exposed. I am not a big fan of Rob Singer because most of the time his logic is flawed but in this case he may have a point. I still play these games but I am aware that these casinos are not as honest as you or I. My advise - please be careful and look at this in the light instead of having blinders on. My thanks to vpfree and all the readers of this long post.
Sent from my iPhone
Posted by: Steve Norden <nordo123@aol.com>
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