Thanks, sounds good!
I neglected to divide my number (137,747,462) by Q^44 (.884901525)
gives your result. I think my number gives the chances of six OR MORE quads,
while yours gives the chances of EXACTLY six quads, which was what I was
after.
So, it's the product of--the probability of hitting the hand six times, the
probability of NOT hitting the hand 44 times, and the number of ways you can
arrange the six hits among the 50 hands. Sounds right to me!
No wonder I've only hit six quads once!
Brian
============
In a message dated 1/16/2008 6:57:05 PM Pacific Standard Time,
jeff-cole@comcast.
bjaygold@... wrote:
My biggest 50-play longshot was holding a pair of 2s and getting SIX
quads. I could use some help with this one, as the number I come up
with is too high to be correct. I think.
and also wrote:
Here's how I calculated it.
Chances of hitting a quad from a pair is one in 360.333.
So, (360.333 ^ 6) / [50! / (44! * 6!)] = one in 137,747,462.
Did I calculate this correctly?
Brian, if we let P = 45/C(47, 3) [that's for the 360.333]
and let Q = 1 - P,
then C(50, 6) * P^6 * Q^44 gives us the probability of 6 hits, which
is 1/155,664,171. How does that sound?
Jeff
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