There's been a lot of talk about break-even on progressives, and one might logically assume that if one played at break-even, one would in fact break-even. Turns out this is a non sequitur.
The point at which the Jackpot perfectly equals the amount you should on average lose to get it, does indeed signal a passing of 100% return (if the machines were non-progressive & there was nothing else adding to it). Today, that's obviously a gross oversimplification of all the elements involved.
1. Cash back on a slot card will reduce the BE point.
2. If you sit down and play at exactly 100%, the meter will progress from there. Which means on a progressive, break-even is a WIN--equal to the amount of meter-rise on the Jackpot you are playing for. (This is also an oversimplification and assumes that once you sit down you will play until the JP hits).
3. In today's environment of monthly mailers, tournament invites, multiple point days, giveaways, drawings, etc...Breaking even (on your machine play) can be a huge edge.
I frequently play in casinos where one engages in play on slightly negative machines for all the perks it generates. Progressive play should be considered for this purpose. A casino where one frequently plays 99.3% games might have an up progressive at 99.6% that even though it wasn't yet at BE/100% would still be better than the normal fare.
In summary BE (Break-Even) is not really "break even" and has to be calculated on a case by case basis on every progressive in every casino separately, based on local and variable factors.
Almost any level of simplification where progressive are concerned will result in an inaccurate rating of their true return. This could cause you to miss good opportunities if you underestimate, or even worse play without an edge if you overestimate.
Underestimation is more common on single meters.
Overestimation is more common on multi-meters.
Both are possible on either type of machine. I can tell you one absolute truth, if you apply non-progressive logic and math to progressives you will never come up with an accurate number. They do not follow the same rules. The math is different.
~FK
