--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, coachvee@... wrote:
>
>
> Hi Gang:
> Here are my picks for tomorrow’s Kentucky Derby with a little analysis of
> each horse. Good luck to everyone. Enjoy the spectacle!!
> Regards,
> CoachVee
> 1. MASTER OF HOUNDS (No. 11, 30-1). European invader lost by nostril
> to superstar filly at 1 3/16 miles in UAE Derby off long layoff; stalking
> style perfect for this race and breeding says he’ll love distance; picks up
> Eclipse-winning jock.
> 2. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE (No. 15, 10-1). Probably ran Derby distance
> when four-wide throughout in Santa Anita Derby score; Baffert master at
> preparing horses for this race; working like gangbusters over track.
> 3. NEHRO (No. 19, 6-1). Improving colt just missed in last two,
> including neck loss in Arkansas Derby; trainer/jock combo top notch; will be
> charging hard through stretch.
> 4. DIALED IN (No. 8, 4-1). Likely favorite has few flaws; right there
> in four lifetime starts and trainer has won this race twice; might be left
> with too much to do.
> LONGSHOT SPECIAL: ANIMAL KINGDOM (No. 16, 30-1). Honest,
> hard-knocking colt getting good at right time; bred to run all day; handles any
> surface.
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
I agree with your high opinion of Nehro and Midnight Interlude. They would be co-favorites in my own line at about 9-1.
I like your longshot, too, though your comment "handles any surface" is a stretch.
IMO, Dialed In is a strong bet against. I can not see any reason for Dialed In to be favored over 5-6 other horses. In addition to Nehro and Midnight Inerlude, I think ArchArchArch, Mucho Macho Man, and Shackleford have a better chance to win than Dialed In.
Having an overbet horse like Dialed In and, to a lesser extent, Twice The Appeal (vastly overbet because of Borel riding), makes it possible that many of the other horses will be bettable.
It's impossible for me to guage Master of Hounds' chances. But DRF's Mike Welch, who's a pretty good judge of horses' motion, said he looked awful when he finally got to the Churchill track.
My own longshot recommendation would be Comma To The Top. I seem to be alone in thinking this horse has a shot to win it. He is currently the longest odds in early betting.
--Dunbar
