For the heck of it I messed around a bit with the Lotspiech calculator. The lowest you can run it is for 5 and then 10, which equates to bet sizes of 1/4 and 1/8 of the goal respectively. So you know the following:
for bet size equals goal ($1000), win rate is 31%
for bet size equals 1/4 of goal ($250), win rate is 44%
for bet size equals 1/8 of goal ($125), win rate is 41%
So the optimum is somewhere between $1000 and $125.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "alan3262" <alan3262@> wrote:
> >But in video poker, I think you start out betting substantially less than $1,000/hand.
>
>
> Probably true. One hand of 9-6 JOB has only a 24% win rate, because on average when you win you go over the goal. The more hands you play, the more your win rate approaches 50% on a breakeven game, but the more hands you play, the more vig you pay on a negative game, so there your win rate approaches 0%. You should account for the vig, if your goal is win $1,000 but the vig is $5, then you really need to win $1005. If you have to put in $2000 coin-in to win the $1000, then the vig is $10, and you really need to win $1010, and so on. There's probably an optimal in there somewhere. You could figure it out with Lotspiech's gambler's ruin calculator:
>
> http://www.lotspiech.com/poker/GamblersRuin.html
>
> Or ask Frank what he'd charge to figure it out?
>
> I have a for free guess, I'd guess about $100, but that could be way off, I just don't know. You have to run the numbers and see.
>
