Re: [vpFREE] Z

 

I think a lot of the reaction to COVID is based on many factors:  first of all, it's in addition to the usual deaths, which may be slightly offset by some secondary reductions.  And most of the yearly deaths that are usually experienced are ones we are used to:  motor vehicle accidents, old age, shootings, heart attacks, and so on ... we all are familiar with most of them.

More important, it's new and it's mean and it's spreading so very fast and the illness and the deaths are pretty spectacular -- and it's taking down those who are caring for those who are dying, which is not usually the case with most other causes of death.  And then, when someone dies, the emotional impact of not being able to visit while they're dying or to attend a funeral properly is an issue.  Not to mention the way it's overwhelming morgues and requiring refrigerated trucks and mass burials in NYC.

Unlike the usual annual deaths, it's much more spectacular.  Whether it's extensive enough to justify all the shut-down is debatable, and is being debated, but my own assessment is that this is a source of disease and death that's much easier to avoid than the others, where I have to eat properly and exercise (I'm sure some casino-goers eat well and exercise, but I'm pretty sure most are pretty sedentary and eat all they can at those free buffets).  As a retiree, staying home most of the time is not that bad.  For those who are missing work, and there are millions, the shut down is not so benign, as we're all aware.

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On Thursday, April 16, 2020, 02:01:44 PM EDT, 'H. Dunbar .' h_dunbar@hotmail.com [vpFREE] <vpfree@yahoogroups.com> wrote:




I, too, have been thinking along these lines.    With over 2.3 million dying each year in the US prior to Covid-19, are the current Covid-19 death projections truly alarming?    Especially when 'unintended consequences' are factored in, like economic hardship and food shortages.

It's hard to imagine a successful short-term exit strategy.   I understand the immediate goal is to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, but is this country ready to deploy the huge resources necessary to do full contact tracing and tracking?   Without that, isn't another spike inevitable, once restrictions are lifted?    

Also, I want to echo Jersey Stu's remarks about how refreshing it is that this discussion is taking place without political finger-pointing.   A rarity.

Dunbar


From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> on behalf of Glen Gronseth gleng4444@gmail.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2020 12:23 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Z
 
 

Barry Glazer's post (below) touched on a point that occurred to me three days ago.  Here's a note that I sent to some friends. -- GMan
.......
From today's Detroit News:
>>Preliminary statistics from the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services record 5,929 deaths in March 2020. On average, the month of March has seen 8,542 deaths between 2015 and 2019.<<

So 2,600 fewer Michiganders died last month than during a typical March when everyone could engage in their usual activities.  Not driving cars accounts for a part of the decrease, but not as many as you might expect.  In 2018, Michigan had 9.7 traffic fatalities per 100,000 population.  Total population = 10,000,000.  So multiply 9.7 x 100 and divide the product by 12 = 81 traffic deaths in an average month. 

What accounts for the additional 2,500 who didn't die in March of 2019?  I wonder who they were and what they didn't do that they otherwise would have done.


On Thu, Apr 16, 2020 at 12:00 PM Barry Glazer b.glazer@att.net [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:
 

To put the virus problem in perspective, the best figures I can find shows annual deaths in the U.S. for 2017 at 2.3 million.  We all die eventually; the question is do you want to speed it up by risking exposure to a nasty way to go like coronavirus.  I expect all the social distancing and isolation will perhaps reduce deaths from the flu and from traffic accidents, perhaps to an extent that will offset COVID deaths, and perhaps also offset in the opposite directions by food shortages, especially in other countries.  NO school shootings have occurred with the schools closed, and hard to have mass murders of any kind when there are no masses.

But I know some will ask, is that the way we want to live.  Each will need to answer that for themselves.  I'm in the middle right now.

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