Re: [vpFREE] Z

 

In New York, 55% of the fatalities had high blood pressure. But 45% of the general population in New York has high blood pressure. That plus obesity and you probable have 60% of the population. 


-----Original Message-----
From: 'H. Dunbar .' h_dunbar@hotmail.com [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thu, Apr 16, 2020 4:30 pm
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Z

 
I was focusing a lot on the "underlying factors", too, until I read that obesity is considered an underlying factor.  https://wexnermedical.osu.edu/blog/why-is-obesity-a-risk-factor-for-severe-covid19-symptoms 

With 40% of the country obese (aged 20 or over), not many would be allowed out if all with "underlying factors" are quarantined.

--Dunbar


From: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> on behalf of Larry & Cindy Brill lab79cgb@comcast.net [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Thursday, April 16, 2020 3:04 PM
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: Re: [vpFREE] Z
 
 
I think, somehow, the key to coming out of this has to do with the death rate information.  I have been following a doctor's blog from the Dallas area.  He was the first place I'd read where 90% of the deaths were folks who had "underlying factors".  When I read an article about New York deaths (altho from last week) it states that 86% of those who had died had at least one "comorbidity".  I'd not heard the term before but it is the "simultaneous presence of two chronic diseases or conditions in a patient".  The leading presence in New York - in addition to Covid-19 - were hypertension, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, coronary artery disease, and on down the list.  

Seems like a natural part of our way out is to make sure anyone with those conditions stays "quarantined" while the rest of the world begins to feel their way back.  If you cut back on the death rate by 85-90%, then you're more in the "flu" category.  

It won't be easy, but smarter minds should be able to start some trials...

On Apr 16, 2020, at 10:26 AM, Barry Glazer b.glazer@att.net [vpFREE] <vpFREE@yahoogroups.com> wrote:

 

Experts agree that re-opening the world is important, but also agree that the near-universal ability to test and to trace contacts is essential to re-opening safely.  Even with that, the virus will be around, and when it's not, will be back ... until availability of vaccine/s -- est... 12-18 months, and likely with delays after that before availability is widespread.

Re: poker, as long as you handle chips and cards, person-to-person spacing is somewhat irrelevant.  And trust me, I'm a big poker fan, whose weekly home game shut down five weeks ago, probably a week or two later than it should have (like much of the world, and we didn't know better yet).  Thankfully we're all well so far.

While it is likely that volume of exposure is associated with likelihood of disease, experts say that we don't yet know this for a fact, nor do we know how much exposure is needed for the virus to "take hold" in a person once exposed.  Health care workers and others in contact with a lot of the public are extreme examples -- but the casino environment is definitely "contact with a lot of the public".  And all such data, even when solid, will likely be on a bell-shaped curve (that we all understand), with the amount of exposure needed to get disease varying from very little to a lot over a large population.

I wish I could trust those who are sick to stay home -- but unless that trust could be universal, I'm not ready to expose myself to disease based on that trust.  Not to mention the culture of young people who I see regularly defying social distancing and conducting themselves as though immune, even though they can thus spread virus among themselves and then to others.

I was an early sceptic of most of this.  I've become a believer, and would rather take a break from casino gambling for a year or more, and then be able to go back for many years after that.

=================

On Thursday, April 16, 2020, 01:41:21 AM EDT, James Morgan what7do7you7want@yahoo.com [vpFREE] <vpfree@yahoogroups.com> wrote:




Poker won't work with spaced seating.  Does this mean no poker, or should we let adults decide for themselves the risk they will take.   I say let people decide for themselves.   

Masks should be mandatory for all persons in the casino public areas.  Despite the moronic, transparent suggestion that people not used masks that we had from our P.O.S. government last month, masks are VERY good at slowing the spread.   A mask is not very good at keeping the virus out of your system (though with goggles and correct fit they are pretty good and even a crap cloth mask is better than nothing), but it is very good at preventing people from putting viral contagions into the air.   I doubt any precise numbers have been obtained, but surely the levels of virus in the air must be much lower if everyone has a mask, which means a much lower "R" (R is transmission rate, usually expressed as number of people each person infects)   I have also read that the volume of contagion matters as well.   People exposed to lower levels in their environment tend to have less severe illnesses.  We have seen the worst fatality rates from persons in confined spaces like nursing homes, ships, and NYC.  A high viral load is almost certainly a factor in the high rate of cases that have happened to our medical staff.

Because people can be asymptomatic and be carriers, and most sick people will stay home, we don't need temperature taking, tracking software and such, but we do need universal testing, ASAP.  Once that is done, people can have some form of proof of a recent test that can be examined at entry points.  Testing is especially important for those at risk due to comorbidities.  They need to know if it is safe for them to be out and about or if they need to self isolate until a vaccine is ready.

It is important to realize that this disease is too contagious to keep totally in ch! eck.   More or less everyone will be exposed unless they remain isolated until a vaccine is ready.   We need to let go of the idea that we can keep everyone from being exposed.   Instead, we need to focus on slowing the spread so those who do need hospital care can receive excellent care.   The economy cannot stand much more shutdown.   A global depression of unprecedented magnitude would be the likely result, though it might be a bit more accurate to simply say that nobody knows how bad things will get.   We are in totally unknown territory in term of the economy.  But if we do have another world wide great depression, it will kill far more people than the virus and create widespread human misery as well.   It may seem heartless, but we cannot measure our success in terms of only the virus and those who are infected.    In complex systems, it is quite rare for optimal solutions to be based on maximizing only one kind of parameter.

We are now far better prepared, can slow the spread by closing schools and using masks, and have a number of promising treatments being studied.   We have more hospital capacity now.   We need to resume our normal lives with a small number of high impact modifications that are not toxic to the economy as a whole, such as keeping schools closed until at least the fall and even then enforcing some social distancing standards such as masks and smaller classes, which might mean having students attend 3 days a week, do 2 days on the computer and allowing the class sizes to be split in half.  

We need millions of Americans to go back to work, ASAP.



QZ

On Wednesday, April 15, 2020, 06:55:26 PM MST, vpFREE3355 vpfree3355@gmail.com [vpFREE] <vpfree@yahoogroups..com> wrote:


 
Time to get Nevada back to work (and play): An open letter to Governor
Steve Sisolak by Jeffrey Compton publisher of CDC gaming Reports

https://www.cdcgamingreports.com/commentaries/time-to-get-nevada-back-to-work-and-play-an-open-letter-to-governor-steve-sisolak/

or

https://tinyurl.com/y9q34yoq

vpFREE Administrator

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