Edge can be positive or negative, one side or the other has the edge, for example here's perfect 9/6 Jacks (a negative edge game):
at 1 hand, luck = 99.9%
at 100 hands, luck = 98.9%
at 1,000 hands, luck = 96.5%
at 2,000 hands, luck = 95.2%
at 10,000 hands, luck = 89.8%
at 100,000 hands, luck = 73.6%
at 200,000 hands, luck = 66.4%
at 400,000 hands, luck = 58.3%
at 800,000 hands, luck = 49.7%
at 2,000,000 hands, luck = 38.4%
at 5,000,000 hands, luck = 28.3%
at 10,000,000 hands, luck = 21.8%
at 100,000,000 hands, luck = 8.1%
I guess you're postulating a player who plays Jacks so badly that they have a -3.5% edge? That would look like this (close to Bob's numbers):
at 1 hand, luck = 99.2%
at 100 hands, luck = 92.7%
at 1,000 hands, luck = 80%
at 2,000 hands, luck = 73.8%
at 10,000 hands, luck = 55.8%
at 100,000 hands, luck = 28.5%
at 200,000 hands, luck = 22%
at 400,000 hands, luck = 16.6%
at 800,000 hands, luck = 12.4%
at 2,000,000 hands, luck = 8.2%
at 5,000,000 hands, luck = 5.3%
at 10,000,000 hands, luck = 3.8%
at 100,000,000 hands, luck = 1.2%
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
>
> noti ... you seem to be limiting the skill component of return to the positive edge of a game. If you instead allow a more commonly attributed 2%-3% advantage (vs relatively unskilled play), aren't Bob's estimates in the general ballpark?
>
> - H.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "nightoftheiguana2000" <nightoftheiguana2000@> wrote:
> >
> > Bob wrote:
> > >I talk about luck versus skill in video poker. I say that over the >next two hours luck accounts for probably 80% of your results. Over >the next 200 hours, luck accounts for probably 20%.
> >
> >
> > I have to disagree. For two hours, 2000 hands of video poker?, luck has to be over 99%. At 200 hours, 200,000 hands?, 20% luck is very low, that would be a video poker game with an unusually low N0. At N0 luck is 50%. Typical video poker has N0's around a million hands. FPDW+0.25% is 50% luck at about 260,000 hands. Of course this is taking "luck" to be the standard deviation, a common definition for an ill defined term.
> >
> > [For those that don't know, N0=variance/edge^2 hands]
> >
> >
> >
> > --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, vpFREE Administrator <vpfree3355@> wrote:
> > >
> > > Bob Dancer's LV Advisor Column - 26 MAR 2013
> > >
> > > "The Secret to Success"
> > >
> > > http://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/bob_dancer/2013/0326.cfm
> > >
> > >
> > > *************************************************
> > > This link is posted for informational purposes
> > > and doesn't constitute an endorsement or approval
> > > of the linked article's content by vpFREE. Any
> > > discussion of the article must be done in
> > > accordance with vpFREE's rules and policies.
> > > *************************************************
> > >
> >
>
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