-----Original Message-----
From: mike
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: The New Progressives At The M
Who was the idiot playing the Double Bonus?
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Frank" <frank@...> wrote:
>
> 3 Royals hit today that I'm aware of.
>
> $2,300 Double Bonus
> $4,300 Joker KoB
> $4,100 Super Double Bonus
----------------------------------------------------------
Why would he be the "idiot"? Based on the reported $4,300 & $2,300 royals
for KBJW and DB respectively, the joker definitely had an expected return of
almost exactly 4% higher than the DB. Most people in this group will likely
agree that VP is mathematics, but certainly more than a single calculation.
In the two games above at the level that they were hit, the joker player was
fighting a variance number of 340, while the DB player only 120, just a bit
more than 1/3 the joker game. The royal cycle, another consideration while
playing progressives,was 10 percent more hands for the KBJW game (just like
most wild card games) than was the cycle for the DB game. If you consider
limiting your play on either game to five or six hours, the likelihood of
hitting the top two payoffs in either game is severely reduced. In KBJW,
without a royal or a five of a kind, the average long term hourly loss for
an 800 HPH player will be around $80. For the DB player who does not score
a royal or a straight flush, considerably less, at around $68.50 per hour.
I am not making any judgments on anything here, but as has been posted many
times , return is not the only consideration for making a game choice. For
those with limited finances, bankroll protection is a big factor if you are
just taking a limited shot at a progressive. I play a lot on progressive
games, and I will usually ponder all of the above variables when choosing
a game. There are many play by the seat of your pants progressive players
out there that none of the above will apply to. These are the folks that,
when you mention EV, they may think that you are referring to the oil that
Rachael Ray adds to her salads. I assume that most of our members are above
that talent level. Not knowing the player who was hit by the DB royal, and
therefore having no clue as to their goals, how can we judge an intelligence
level? They may have been thinking that playing a game that has a similar
return to JOB, close to break even without the mailer, may improve their BB.
One thing I am sure of is that the person who walked with the $2,300 hand
pay probably does not consider themselves an idiot.
Nudge
