--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "vp_wiz" <harry.porter@...> wrote:
>
> ThomasS <tomskilv@> wrote:
> > > Bottom line, to have a 97.37% return or less after 293,000 hands
> > > when average game played returns 99.60 will happen only 1 in 150
> > > times.
> > >
> > > I guess I beat the odds. TomSki
>
>
> Jim <deucesdamule@> wrote:
> > Your statement is true with 100% mathematically perfect play.
> > However, if your play is less than perfect, say 97-98% perfect
> > play, the chances for the results that you received increases
> > significantly. Also, keep in mind, if your play is at or very near
> > 100% perfect, after only a couple thousand hands of good luck (such
> > as 2-3 royal flushes) your results may then be at or even above the
> > expected return .
>
>
> I'm sure Tom (one of the better known LV veterans) appreciates the platitudes.
>
"Platitudes?"
In what way am I degrading Tom's statement? I am merely observing a breakdown of possible causes and results. I'm sure Tom plays a tremendous amount as do I. However, we all do make errors at times. The better the player the lower the amount of errors. I'm sure Tom is playing above a 99.5% perfection rate, but even so, the slightest variation of perfect play combined with bad luck will obviously lower the return. I've had runs just as bad, if not worse, and I've had very lucky spurts where the return was incredibly high. Let's face it, the expected value is the true mathmatical goal with an infinite number of hands played and 293,000 hands is far from infinity. So in the short term, which I would classify as anything less than 1 million hands, luck will reign supreme in determining the overall return of a game, not the expected value.
