I believe this suggests that we're on a similar wavelength now ;)
For the skillful, I suspect there's some elegant math that might be applied to simplify the solution. It's beyond me, however. I advise simulation.
My hands are full presently, but I may take a crack at an estimate and post back.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <Nordo123@...> wrote :
I think I am beginning to understand this problem. Without the guarantee you are right Harry this is a complex problem that can't be solved in closed form. Without the guarantee let P(n) stand for the probability that in your last n games you have a 60 game losing streak. It is obvious that P(n) = P(n-1) + ((1-P(n-61))x(0.04324789135)x(0.070463738969)). This involves solving a 61st degree polynomial which can not be solved in closed form. To get you started P(60) = 0.070463738969, P(61) = P(60) + (0.04324789135)x(0.070463738969) = 0.07351114706. Years ago I solved the problem of a baseball team in n games having a 2 game winning (or losing) streak with the probability of a win or a loss a constant with independence of games. This involved solving a cubic equation which can be solved. It still took me a few days to put this in closed form. Good luck on this one Mickey!
Sent from my iPhone
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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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