Thanks for the reply. This is kind of what I expected and I think for my own purposes unless I am playing a long session I will care more about the current meter. For example if NSUD is available and 9/6 JoB with a 0.25% meter is available but the meter has just reset and I am only going to play for a little bit then it seems right to opt for NSUD (disregarding variance/bankroll concerns).
And yes, I agree you definitely still get a benefit if you don't commit to hitting it and instead play for a certain amount of time or coin-in. One way is that you might actually hit it and the other way is that there's no guarantee someone else will hit it before you come back. I think it it is impossible to quantify the EV gain from the latter, though.
I also agree that when you commit to play until it hits, then the competition increasing reduces your EV on multi-machine progressives. My example assumed the players started at the same time but if they don't then the first player will have more of a contribution to the meter and any additional players that sit down now have the same chances of hitting. Interesting observation.
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Posted by: aonsf@reallymymail.com
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