Dunbar wrote: "Since bet size cannot be smoothly lowered when playing video poker, even Kelly betting can't save us from having a finite chance of going broke if we continue playing."
Since there's always some min bet size, there is always some finite chance of hitting that limit in the Kelly system. Technically not broke, but a very small remaining bankroll. And often, but not always, that chance is very small (as long as you can step down bet size several times).
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <h_dunbar@...> wrote:
NOTI, you argue that Kelly betting contradicts Jean's assertion that "There is never a zero chance of going broke." But in your FPDW example, you assume the player would stop betting when the bankroll reached the minimum level needed for a correct Kelly bet. So the player avoids going broke by stopping betting. I think we can all agree that we'll never lose our entire bankroll if we stop betting! ;>)
(You also mentioned looking for a lower denomination game if your bankroll reached the Kelly minimum level, but eventually there's a point beyond which you cannot lower your bet and would have to stop betting to avoid going broke.)
Jean's (implied) assertion was that a person who bet indefinitely would have a finite chance of going broke. That's a correct statement, IMO. Since bet size cannot be smoothly lowered when playing video poker, even Kelly betting can't save us from having a finite chance of going broke if we continue playing.
--Dunbar
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:Jean wrote: "There is never a zero chance of going broke."
With the Kelly system there is zero chance of going broke, and a very reduced risk of bankroll depletion. I think, if I remember correctly, the Kelly number for FPDW with no other sweeteners and perfect play is 2925 bets, so for 5 coin quarters you would stop gambling at a bankroll of $3,656.25, meaning your bankroll would never go lower than that amount. Of course if you can find 10 coin nickel FPDW, the Kelly stop limit there would be $1,462.50, and for 5 coin nickel FPDW it would be $731.25 Google "Kelly betting" for details.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <vpfree3355@...> wrote:Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 13 NOV 2013
Can You Still Do It? – Part 3
http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=3255
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