NOTI, you argue that Kelly betting contradicts Jean's assertion that "There is never a zero chance of going broke." But in your FPDW example, you assume the player would stop betting when the bankroll reached the minimum level needed for a correct Kelly bet. So the player avoids going broke by stopping betting. I think we can all agree that we'll never lose our entire bankroll if we stop betting! ;>)
(You also mentioned looking for a lower denomination game if your bankroll reached the Kelly minimum level, but eventually there's a point beyond which you cannot lower your bet and would have to stop betting to avoid going broke.)
Jean's (implied) assertion was that a person who bet indefinitely would have a finite chance of going broke. That's a correct statement, IMO. Since bet size cannot be smoothly lowered when playing video poker, even Kelly betting can't save us from having a finite chance of going broke if we continue playing.
--Dunbar
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <nightoftheiguana2000@...> wrote:
Jean wrote: "There is never a zero chance of going broke."
With the Kelly system there is zero chance of going broke, and a very reduced risk of bankroll depletion. I think, if I remember correctly, the Kelly number for FPDW with no other sweeteners and perfect play is 2925 bets, so for 5 coin quarters you would stop gambling at a bankroll of $3,656.25, meaning your bankroll would never go lower than that amount. Of course if you can find 10 coin nickel FPDW, the Kelly stop limit there would be $1,462.50, and for 5 coin nickel FPDW it would be $731.25 Google "Kelly betting" for details.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <vpfree3355@...> wrote:Jean Scott's Frugal Vegas LVA BLOG - 13 NOV 2013
Can You Still Do It? – Part 3
http://jscott.lvablog.com/?p=3255
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