--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Misscraps <misscraps@...> wrote:
>
> On another note, I'd always be skeptical of doing some sort of promo like this where the loss is repaid in free play, whether one time or over 20 installments, or whatever. Theoretically, it all sounds well and good, but I've often had the sad reality of getting free play, and when I play it through just once, lose part of it. All too often 10-50%, even on a 99.96% positive VP machine. The thing is, as we probably all know, in the short run you aren't too likely to hit a royal or even a quad, and it is those hands that really pull up the average payouts. Yep, you could win as you go for the "loss" promo. But if you end up losing, getting that loss back could be tricky, depending how deep in debt you go. I know, it's a gamble, but for those who really would try to maximize something like this, saying risking a loss of $10k plus or $100k when they didn't win, it could be a costly gamble, even if the Revel pays off its end of the promo. Which of course is why the Revel is willing to offer such a thing. In the long run of the promo, the Revel is probably still going to win money from the aggregate of all its promo-gamblers, and maybe get some of the new customers they want as well.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.
Misscraps,
Sounds like you are taking a very short term approach to this promotion. Let's say you decide to take full advantage of the promo and will run money through until you are either up $50,000 or down $100,000. You play a $1 9/5 DDB game ( I don't know what is available there) and after running $2,000,000 CI, you are down $100,000. You now get the loss rebate of $5,000/week and continue playing the $1 9/5 DDB game. Your expectation is a loss of $100/week ( 2% game) and you will ( on average) get back $98,000 of your $100,000 investment. So, you are 'paying' $2,000 for the privilege of running $2M CI and hoping to hit a big payday. I could run the numbers on Dunbar's excellent risk analyser but this sure looks like a pretty good deal.
20,000 hands of DDB is still subject to the short term variation of the game. You could lose 10% of the bankroll. Highly unlikely you would lose 50%.
I think you are looking at results instead of expectation. You don't know if you will win or lose but that should not determine if you play ( you do need to look at bankroll considerations). If someone will pay me $10.50 for a coin flip when I guess correctly and collect $10 when I guess incorrectly, I'll flip with him as long as I can, regardless of results ( if I believe the flip is fair).
The fact that higher denom machines are excluded certainly changes the value of this promo but the fact that you are given freeplay instead of cash should not affect your decision very much at all. You just have to look at the value of the freeplay in this casino.
It's all expectation vs risk. In this promo, assuming Revel will honor their agreement, the risk is manageable for the reward. Maybe I'll play around with Dunbar's risk analyzer and see what the numbers show.
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