Thanks Ed. I understood your explanation!!
james thompson
former hrh casino monitor
> To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> From: ed.miller@gmail.com
> Date: Tue, 20 Mar 2012 13:48:26 -0700
> Subject: Re: [vpFREE] What would it take?
>
> When you draw two to trips, there are 47*46/2=1081 possible two card draws.
>
> Of these 1081 possible draws, 46 make quads. So the chance of making quads
> when drawing to trips is 46/1081 = 4.26%
>
> The chance of drawing zero quads to trips on a ten play machine, therefore,
> is 0.9574^10 = 64.7%
>
> So when you draw to trips on a ten play machine, you're about a 2-to-1 dog
> to catch one or more quads. Therefore, missing ten times in a row is a
> little more than a 1% shot.
>
> Ed
>
> On Tue, Mar 20, 2012 at 1:05 PM, Valerie Pollard <vpollard@socal.rr.com>wrote:
>
> > **
> >
> >
> > Misscraps wrote,
> >
> > "I probably had 3 Aces dealt (playing DDB) at
> > least 10 times and never got the 4th Ace on any line. Same thing for 2s,
> > 3s, but also for the rest of the numbers, over and over again. Frustrating
> > to the point of saying, what the heck is the matter with these machines.
> > 5-play also often shows the same lack of quads."
> >
> > I am not Frank and I'm sure he will have a solid reply to you - but
> > whenever I see this happening I try to remind myself that:
> > - each hand is separate whether it is a single line game, triple play,
> > five play, ten play etc. You just have more "chances" with more hands
> > - you already have three of the card, so you have a 47-1 chance that you
> > will get the other one on each hand.
> > - when I think about it being 47-1 it doesn't seem so odd, especially in
> > the short term, that I don't get the 4th card as much as I would like.
> > - I also think that we tend to forget the times when we get dealt four of
> > a kind, or draw it when holding one Ace, or two 3's, etc. Those get
> > overshadowed by the frustration of seeing three of them in front of you -
> > all glowing on ten hands, it seems like it *has* to happen. The key word
> > being "seems".
> >
> > Recently I watched two different players hold four to the Royal playing
> > ten hands. Most exciting was the gentleman who was playing a $5
> > limit....neither of them got the 4th card, even with ten chances. Oh well,
> > so it goes.
> >
> > Valerie
> >
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> >
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>
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>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
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