Of these 1081 possible draws, 46 make quads. So the chance of making quads
when drawing to trips is 46/1081 = 4.26%
The chance of drawing zero quads to trips on a ten play machine, therefore,
is 0.9574^10 = 64.7%
So when you draw to trips on a ten play machine, you're about a 2-to-1 dog
to catch one or more quads. Therefore, missing ten times in a row is a
little more than a 1% shot.
Ed
On Tue, Mar 20, 2012 at 1:05 PM, Valerie Pollard <vpollard@socal.rr.com>wrote:
> **
>
>
> Misscraps wrote,
>
> "I probably had 3 Aces dealt (playing DDB) at
> least 10 times and never got the 4th Ace on any line. Same thing for 2s,
> 3s, but also for the rest of the numbers, over and over again. Frustrating
> to the point of saying, what the heck is the matter with these machines.
> 5-play also often shows the same lack of quads."
>
> I am not Frank and I'm sure he will have a solid reply to you - but
> whenever I see this happening I try to remind myself that:
> - each hand is separate whether it is a single line game, triple play,
> five play, ten play etc. You just have more "chances" with more hands
> - you already have three of the card, so you have a 47-1 chance that you
> will get the other one on each hand.
> - when I think about it being 47-1 it doesn't seem so odd, especially in
> the short term, that I don't get the 4th card as much as I would like.
> - I also think that we tend to forget the times when we get dealt four of
> a kind, or draw it when holding one Ace, or two 3's, etc. Those get
> overshadowed by the frustration of seeing three of them in front of you -
> all glowing on ten hands, it seems like it *has* to happen. The key word
> being "seems".
>
> Recently I watched two different players hold four to the Royal playing
> ten hands. Most exciting was the gentleman who was playing a $5
> limit....neither of them got the 4th card, even with ten chances. Oh well,
> so it goes.
>
> Valerie
>
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>
>
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