About .0018%
The issue isn't really about how much it cost her in this instance.
In my opinion the serious error was simply how she came to the conclusion of which draw was better. She employed logic that was not merely inferior, it was impossible.
Do that enough times in life and it's bound to lead you to some dead-end-one-way streets.
I am of the mind that thinking well isn't merely a good idea.
~FK
P.S. Back next week. Cheers all...sorry for my long absence. I'll try to post something interesting once a month.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Bruce Cohen <brucedcohen2002@...> wrote:
>
> That's why the Casino can well afford 'Full Pay' VP machines.
> Â
> Frank, a question:
> How much EV was she giving up by making this incorrect hold?
>
>
> >________________________________
> >From: Frank <frank@...>
> >To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
> >Sent: Tuesday, October 4, 2011 9:30 AM
> >Subject: [vpFREE] Re: Why Trying to Understand Randomness is Not a Good Idea
> >
> >
> >Â
> >Glad you liked it. I'm well aware that most vpFREE members already know this stuff. I just thought it might make for an amusing subject with a little FK spin on the topic.
> >
> >My favorite recent example of this dynamic occurred when I was sitting next to a 57T Dbl BoPo player that "preferred" to hold only AA when dealt Two Pair with a pair of Aces.
> >
> >She had asked me a few strategy questions, so when this draw came up and she made the wrong play, I innocently asked her if she knew the Two Pair was better. Here's the dialogue from there.
> >
> >Player: "Oh, I know that's what they say, but I do better holding just the aces."
> >
> >FK: "I see. Have you ever tried holding the two pair?"
> >
> >Player: "I think so, a few times. Seems like I never hit 4 Aces that way. I'm sure I've done better holding just the one pair. I've been playing that way for years now."
> >
> >FK: "Well good luck to you. For some odd reason, suddenly, my stomach isn't feeling well. I think I'll head home."
> >________________________________________
> >
> >I'm not sure which disturbed me most, the fact that she was surprised at how few 4A she had gotten holding Two Pair, or that she was SURE the other hold was better, when her method of comparison was to compare what she had done, with what she hadn't done.
> >
> >Cheers...
> >
> >--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Valerie Pollard" <vpollard@> wrote:
> >> Thank you for posting that, Frank. Really enjoyed it.
> >>
> >> It seems that if more people could approach video poker as entertainment rather than something they try to have control over in some inconsistent fashion, then we wouldn't have to worry about trying to understand what it is made up of: randomness.
> >> Since we can't anyway, as you so aptly and cleverly pointed out.
> >
> >> Valerie
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
> [Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
>
