One of the problems you will face as a visitor is ton of the EV of AP these days is locked up in mailers, tournament invites, free slot tournaments, bounce-back cash, etc...
If you visit and leave, a large percentage of your profit potential is hacked to shreds.
You are going to get a lot of different opinions on whether or not VP is blowing up and if AP is dying. I have been surprised this year at how much there has been to do. It is necessary to scout more and look further afield, but the plays are still there and some of them are very good.
~FK
P.S. Liked your acknowledgment of gas and opportunity cost in play consideration.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "caliexile" <nairbtrah1@...> wrote:
>
> No, those were not rhetorical scare questions in the topic. I am just intensely curious about this and was hoping one of the veterans in this group should shed some light. I apologize for the length and personal nature of this post. First, some background:
>
> I live in San Diego and went to my first casino (Barona) a few months ago with a friend for fun. I immediately gravitated towards vp because I had heard it was a better bet than most games and it was entertaining to me to do the math (just estimates in my head) on which cards to hold, chances of getting the hand I wanted, etc. I've always been mathematically inclined (parents both have math phds) and it was fairly obvious that it was possible to crunch the numbers to see what the *perfect* play was and what the expected return would be for each game and paytable.
>
> I googled video poker and was surprised to see how much information there already was. Statistics were available on basically every metric one could need. I also discovered that there are games with positive EV: this floored me. I had been told by my Dad my whole life that the house always wins except for card counting in blackjack, and he usually knows his stuff.
>
> I mastered 2PJW(FP) using trainers at vpgenius because it is 99.92% at my local casino, barely positive when you factor in CB and promotions. I scoured multiple casinos in my area and it was the best bet I could find. After a few months and ending up slightly behind when you factor in gas costs and opportunity costs (i.e. not working) I decided that I'm going to try to make a serious stab at this: a trip to Vegas with a bankroll high enough to make ruin nearly impossible on positive EV machines. I don't plan on living there, but rather staying 2-4 weeks so I can even out the volatility a bit.
>
> Before I pour my heart and soul into this as I use the next couple months to prepare, that illogical/emotional voice inside wants to know: is it too good to be true? Are too many players finding out about this due to the wide availability of information forcing Casinos to replace their high ev games with their opposites? (gimmicky ones like supertimespay, 100 hands, spin poker) It's starting to dawn on me that instead of having bad luck, I just naturally find out about these types of opportunities as they reach the general public thus losing their profitability.
>
> If that's not what's happening here, I'd also appreciate it if someone could recommend hotels best for a few trial weekend trips I'd like to do before committing to a longer stay.
>
