--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "cheryl10jqka" <cheryl.mohme@...> wrote: What would a realistic bankroll be for 72 hrs play on those progs? And what is the real expected result after that amount of time? To hit one of the royals? For that amount of investment what are you going for? I am still learning about how the math works on these.
FK Reply:
This is a good question. I have some simple math that should allow you to calculate for yourself a close ballpark scenario wihtout being too complicated.
We are going to use some averages, since there are eight different games and all of them are not the same. This is for quarters.
Length of RF Cycle = 32,000 hands
Expected play speed = 1000 hands an hour
Estimated cost to hit a Royal = $2,500
Chance to hit RF in 1 cycle = 63%
Chance to not hit RF in 1 cycle = 37%
Since it would take 32 hours to reach 1 cycle, instead of using 72 hours I'm switching to 96 hours for ease of calculation, as that would be exactly 3 cycles.
We can now answer all your questions by applying simple math to these numbers. First we need to ask specific questions.
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How much could we be expected to lose in 96 hours (if we didn't get a Royal)? = 3 x $2,500 = $7,500
I like to round up, so $10,000 seems reasonable, keeping in mind this is a figure for continuous around the clock play for 4 days straight.
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If I did play that long what is the chance I will hit at least 1 Royal? (.37 x .37 x .37 = .05) (1 - .05 = 95%)
Here we took the chance to NOT HIT the Royal in a cycle and multiplied it by itself 3 times, then subtracted the result from 1 to get the chance TO HIT the Royal. This method works for any perfect cycle. Therefore the chance to hit the RF in 2 cycles is 86% and the chance to have hit at least 1 in 4 cycles would be 98.1%. You can always use this fast and dirty calculation if you remember the magic 37% figure and just multiply it by itself the appropriate number of times and then subtract the result from 1.
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What is my chance of being ahead during this time? To know this precisely we'd have to know how high the Jackpot was that you were playing for. The higher it is, the more you could lose and still be ahead after hitting it. If, for instance, the Royal was $5,000 you could actually go two cycles (half as many Royals as expected) and still break even. This would give you about a 85% chance of being ahead after hitting your first progressive JP.
It doesn't reach $5,000 (or hasn't yet) so that's a hypothetical situation. (best case)
If you played when the JP was $2,500 then you'd have to hit it early (less than a cycle) to be ahead after hitting it. Oddly, the chance for this to happen is about 60%, but assumes any win counts as a win. If you hit it at .999 cycles you'd clear 1$ in profit for your $2,500 RF. (Worst case)
Again this is hypothetical, since if you are smart enough to be reading this and posting on vpFREE, we expect you not to be playing on a break-even Royal.
If you waited for $2,900 you'd have about a 1% edge and a reasonable chance of being ahead after getting a Royal. (69% chance)
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Now here's where I may lose you. In 96 hours of play you are actually expected to get 3 Royals. However, since this is the most probable outcome it is also the least likely. When we consider ALL the possibilities of getting 0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 Royals in 96 hours of play getting exactly 3 is less likely than "something else" other than exactly 3.
Naturally, if you did get exactly 3 (playing on a fixed meter of $2,900) you'd be ahead $1,200 for your 96 hours of work and would have made $12.5 an hour.
For every $400 over $2,900 it adds $12.5 an hour to the play.
Hope this answers your questions and gives you some numbers to play with. ALL THESE NUMBERS WERE CLOSE APPROXIMATES.
And please keep in mind that what's supposed to happen, is not the same as what has happened or what will happen.
Probability math is used to make informed decisions about the future in advance of doing something.
Statistics are used to judge the past, and even then, only badly.
When random events are involved, you can only judge a decision made in the past by the information available at the time the decision was made. You don't get to factor in results, as they hadn't happened yet.
~FK
