On Fri, Jul 15, 2011 at 3:21 PM, Sai Sai <gofastnismo@yahoo.com> wrote:
> People dont go bust because they ignore the other math, they go bust
> because sometimes that unlucky streak stays unlucky for too damn long.
> You know what Im saying Frank. Just because the the math says a specific
> bankroll is needed to have confidence you wont go broke doesn't mean
> that will happen.
OK, "ignore" may have been a poor choice of words, but the math never says
people can't get unlucky. Bankroll calcs don't even guarantee you won't
get broke. They merely say, if you play this game with this much bankroll
you have a 90%, or 95%, or 99%, or whatever, chance of not going broke.
> I was implying that some people consider the math to be concrete
The math *is* concrete. The issue we have is that the math only says
what's expected over the long term. You still have to play the hands, and
yes the results will deviate from the expectation.
> and those machines advertising over 100% payback are always going to do
> just that. Not the case.
I don't think anyone has said "anyone can sit down with any size bankroll
and be guaranteed a short-term profit on the M progressives."
Anyway I don't think we actually disagree all that much, I think we're
quibbling over a minor point.
