Yes you're right, I didn't subtract the overlap. But it's tiny.
On Thu, Feb 10, 2011 at 6:00 PM, King Fish <vpkingfish@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>
> On Thu, Feb 10, 2011 at 5:24 PM, Jason Pawloski <jpawloski@gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
> > The odds of being dealt a royal is (combin(52,5)/4) times being given a
> > multiplier on the draw (15) which turns out to be 9,746,100 games. Every
> > 9,746,100 games, you are awarded 4000*20=80,000 credits. Thus the
> > contribution is probability times pay, which turns out to be
> >
> > (1/9746100) * 80000 / 7 ~ .117%.
> >
> > (You divide by 7 because you are placing a 7 coin bet to win 80,000).
>
> That may be the contribution of a dealt royal to the ER, but it's not
> the same as how much additional value it has.
>
>
>
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