denflo60 wrote:
> I know all the Optimum play rules including penalty cards
> for several games, but but since I never will reach the long term
> perfect bell curve shape in my playing lifetime I deviate from
> optimum play rules because they may not be optimum for me (relatively
> few hands of 100 way play at max coin in) and I have I very high
> risk/reward tolerance. Yes I need some pure luck to win.
Another member notes that short or long-term, optimum strategy is what
will yield the highest expected return. I'll add my 2 cents.
I respect the choice of any player to adopt the strategy that they
prefer. But the belief that one won't "reach the long term" is
fallacious reasoning and doesn't hold up.
Discussions of the long-term center around the fact that it isn't
until after a great many hands of play that the return from
infrequently occurring hands can be looked to fall fairly close to
expectation. However, the far predominant component of vp play is
derived from very frequently occurring hands.
To the extent that strategy deviations shift away from these hands
toward rarer, higher paying hands (and that is almost always the
case), it is almost a dead certainty that you will suffer a shortfall
in overall return related to these hands.
The tradeoff may be that you have a greater probability of hitting the
higher paying hands (royals, quad aces, etc.), but the confidence of
such hits still runs all over the place. In exchange, you can't avoid
the fact that on average you can look for an overall reduction in
return. (And you must still beat the increased expected number of
hits resultant from the strategy shift to beat the odds.)
Now, tell us that you deviate from optimum strategy because you like
to take a shot at big hands (grasping the inherent reduced EV) and
I'll tell you that your play choice entirely makes sense for you.
However, reason that optimum play economics don't make sense for you
because you won't play out the "long term" and I'll suggest that you
may be misguided in your strategy choice.
- Harry
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