--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.
> >
> > If a $2.00 jacks or better 9/6 game was played at 800 hands per
hour
> > with perfect play, what would this play be worth per hour with
a .60
> > cashback? Would a $35,000.00 bankroll be enough?
> >
>
> Using the Risk of Ruin feature in "Video Poker for Winners," it
says
> there is a 58.668% chance of ruin with these parameters. If you use
> Dunbar's Risk Analyzer you'll get a very similar --- not
identical ---
> number as the two programs round differently. This Risk of Ruin
assumes
> you'll be playing FOREVER --- i.e. 200 hours a week for the next
> century. If you're "only" going to be playing this situation for a
> million hands or less, your chance of going broke will be less than
> this. But an "over 50% chance" of losing your entire nut should
> definitely give you pause.
>
> Also I challenge your "perfect play" assumption over time. A lot
of us
> KNOW this game perfectly. That's a whole lot different from
PLAYING it
> perfectly consistently. As hard as I try to play perfectly all of
the
> time, I certainly make inadvertant mistakes while playing (or
writing,
> for that matter) periodically. Since this game returns "only"
100.144%,
> your edge is very small and mistakes can reduce this significantly.
>
> Another way to phrase this is let's assume you make 0.02% in
errors ---
> for whatever reason. On this game, it's about 7% of your overall
edge.
> Had you been playing FPDW with a 0.35% slot club (as is available
at the
> Palms --- with a progressive --- through Sunday --- good luck at
getting
> a seat), this level of error would reduce your overall edge by
less than
> 2%. Big difference.
>
> The lower your overall edge is, the more important perfect play is.
>
> Bob Dancer
As Bob mentioned, the RoR is dependent upon how long you envision
your proposed $35,000 bankroll lasting. If you want to play
forever, your RoR under the conditions you specified is 58.7%. If
you want to play "just" a million hands, your RoR would be 32%. If
you want to play 100,000 hands (125 hrs at your proposed 800
hands/hr), your chance of going broke would be very close to 0%.
I also agree with Bob that it's very important to take errors into
account. Players routinely overestimate their EV and underestimate
their risk by ignoring the inevitability of play errors. If you
make one error every 1000 hands, and that error costs you 1/4 of a
bet, then that's $1.25/hr in errors for your $2 JOB game. (a rather
optimistic figure, IMO) Putting that error rate into Dunbar's Risk
Analyzer, the longterm RoR rises to 62.3% (from 58.7%). Add in a
$40 tip on your $8000 royal flush, and DRA-VP says the RoR rises to
64.4%.
Under those conditions ($1.25/hr error and $40 tip for RF), here are
some longterm bankroll requirements for the $2 JOB with 0.6%
cashback:
% RoR, Bankroll
25%, 110,400
20%, 128,150
15%, 151,050
10%, 183,300
5%, 238,500
2%, 311,450
1%, 366,600
0.5%, 421,800
0.1%, 549,900
Good luck!
--Dunbar
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