--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.
>
> If a $2.00 jacks or better 9/6 game was played at 800 hands per hour
> with perfect play, what would this play be worth per hour with a .60
> cashback? Would a $35,000.00 bankroll be enough?
>
Using the Risk of Ruin feature in "Video Poker for Winners," it says
there is a 58.668% chance of ruin with these parameters. If you use
Dunbar's Risk Analyzer you'll get a very similar --- not identical ---
number as the two programs round differently. This Risk of Ruin assumes
you'll be playing FOREVER --- i.e. 200 hours a week for the next
century. If you're "only" going to be playing this situation for a
million hands or less, your chance of going broke will be less than
this. But an "over 50% chance" of losing your entire nut should
definitely give you pause.
Also I challenge your "perfect play" assumption over time. A lot of us
KNOW this game perfectly. That's a whole lot different from PLAYING it
perfectly consistently. As hard as I try to play perfectly all of the
time, I certainly make inadvertant mistakes while playing (or writing,
for that matter) periodically. Since this game returns "only" 100.144%,
your edge is very small and mistakes can reduce this significantly.
Another way to phrase this is let's assume you make 0.02% in errors ---
for whatever reason. On this game, it's about 7% of your overall edge.
Had you been playing FPDW with a 0.35% slot club (as is available at the
Palms --- with a progressive --- through Sunday --- good luck at getting
a seat), this level of error would reduce your overall edge by less than
2%. Big difference.
The lower your overall edge is, the more important perfect play is.
Bob Dancer
For a 3-day free trial of Video Poker for Winners, the best video poker
computer trainer ever invented, go to //www.videopokerfor
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