In a message dated 2/6/08 12:23:05 AM US Mountain Standard Time,
bdancer@compdance.
> There has been some speculation about why Cody and I received different
> amounts of money, including speculation by people who hadn't read the
> original article. None of the explanations rang true to me other than
> Dick's catchall "I suspect there are many other possibilities as well."
>
> Since some people hadn't seen the article, I asked for and received
> permission from the Administrator to post it here. Below is how I
> submitted the article. Sometimes it is edited before it is printed, and
> if so there may be some differences between what is below and what
> actually ran.
>
> Trying to Figure Out The Formula --- Bob Dancer --- Casino Player ---
> February 2008
>
> A friend, Cody, accompanied Shirley and me to Laughlin. Shirley and I
> each had comped rooms, so Cody used one of them and Shirley and I shared
> the other.
>
> While we were there, we checked out the Aquarius. Although I'd walked
> the floor a few months earlier, I didn't know what the slot club was or
> if they had a first-day promotion. Indeed, they had a nice first-day
> sign-up program where if you played $15,000 worth of video poker you
> received $100 on your next visit. That alone is a 0.67% "cash back" rate
> in addition to 0.2% for the regular cash back.
>
> Although they have some over-100% games for quarters, I didn't want to
> spend all day at this casino playing $15,000 coin-in. They had NSU
> Deuces Wild (99.73%) for all denominations up through $25, so I
> arbitrarily decided to play for $5. With the signup bonus, this was an
> okay game so long as we limited our play to $15,000.
>
> Cody is usually a 25¢ or 50¢ player. Playing a $5 game was out of the
> question. I offered to subsidize his first $15,000. I would keep the net
> win or loss, collect all of the cash back, and he would give me the $100
> that he was going to be able to collect on his next visit. He could keep
> the free T-shirt that came along with the initial $15,000 worth of play.
>
> The advantage to me was real. I was receiving 99.73% + 0.67% + 0.20% =
> 100.60% for $30,000 worth of play rather than for just $15,000 of play.
> The advantage to Cody was real as well. This much play should put us
> both on the mailing list --- perhaps earning future free play, room,
> meal, or other offers.
>
> The decision was made based on the factors listed here. In actual fact,
> "we" (meaning me) lost $3,000 between us, meaning out net score was only
> 90% for the $30,000 we played. It's very unusual to lose that much that
> fast, but certainly not a record. It's just part of the gambling
> experience. It was for this possibility that Cody didn't have the
> bankroll to play this game.
>
> After awhile we both started getting mailers from the casino. My mailers
> told me I was entitled to $100 of free play a month and Cody's offered
> him to $40 a month --- for exactly the same $15,000 play on the same
> day. What gives?
>
> If coin-in was same, there must have been something else that triggered
> these different amounts of play. The casino marketing team won't tell
> you, but trying to figure out what's going on is part of the game.
>
> We looked at zip codes. Cody lives about five miles away from us, in Las
> Vegas, while Shirley and I live in Henderson. Insofar as Laughlin is
> concerned, whether we lived 90 or 95 miles away should be irrelevant.
> Wouldn't you think?
>
> I told Cody that I got offered more because I was better looking and the
> casino liked having beautiful people around. Cody naturally responded
> that if that were the case, he'd get 10 times the offer as I would. The
> truth of the matter was that we don't think this had any bearing on it.
> In a similar vein, we didn't believe that because Cody is Asian and I'm
> not was part of the formula either.
>
> Cody has Asian heritage, and his last name reflects that. It's possible
> that there are different rules for marketing to Asians than Caucasians.
> I remember when I played at the MGM Grand, more than one Asian-American
> player told me the casino discounted their markers. That is, if they
> took out $100,000 in markers, the casino only made them play $90,000.
> The stereotype is that Asian gamblers are good customers to the casino.
> This didn't appear to be in effect here because Cody received LESS than
> me, not more. Our best guess is that it came down to how much we lost
> when we played. My records show that I lost $3,000 between us, without
> providing the breakdown. It could have been me losing $2,500 and Cody
> losing $500, or vice versa. It could have been Cody winning $500 and me
> losing $3,500, I suppose, but I think either he or I would have
> remembered that.
>
> If this is the primary explanation, the casino is acting foolishly. A
> player's score after 600 hands is at least 80% luck. Assuming I'm a more
> valuable customer because I lost more the first time is very
> short-sighted. In this particular case, Cody played each hand slowly and
> we consulted on the plays. Essentially I was playing for both of us and
> the difference in our scores is 100% due to luck.
>
> Even though it would be short-sighted for the casino to use the results
> of our first 600 hands to base future offers on, many casinos do this.
> Each casino has its own decision makers, and sometimes these people
> aren't first rate.
>
> While this is our best guess as to why our offers are different, we're
> not 100% sure. If we had information from 50 other people who played the
> sign up bonus only, likely the pattern would become obvious. But we
> don't know 50 other such people.
>
> Whether we're right or wrong on "how come" we got different mailers, the
> question then becomes "what are we going to do in the future in order to
> continue to receive mailers?" As for me, I intend to continue to play
> $15,000 there each month until the $100 bounce back dries up. As I gain
> more information I may change my approach, but that's my play as of now.
> Figuring out why things happen is often a game of incomplete
> information, but sometimes incomplete information is the best
> information available. While receiving this $100 bounce back is not
> enough by itself to warrant a 180-mile round trip, Shirley and I get
> enough other offers from Laughlin that this makes a nice addition ---
> assuming the cash can be picked up on the same trip. We'll see.
>
> I wish I could provide more certainty other than "this is what I think
> might be happening," but I can't. Truthfully I might be way off on what
> it actually was that triggered the different mailers. The best I can do
> is explain "this is the way I would attack this problem." If I can teach
> you to address these problems like a professional player
>
> would, you'll find yourself making better decisions.
>
>
> Bob Dancer
>
>
*****
Thanks BD for posting the whole article. I found the fact that the casino in
question was the Aquarius to be interesting. I get to Laughlin more than
anywhere else and the Aquarius sure has been a "study" over the years.
It seems like the Aquarius has a ownership and slot club history that rivals
any joint. I have just dabbled in play in my morning walkabouts over the
years at the Aquarius.
How about a quick rundown of ownership and review of the slot club?
Let's go old to new over about 10 years:
Flamingo-Hilton-
Flamingo (lost the Hilton partnership)
Flamingo under the Park Place Entertainment umbrella, then the name change to
Caesar's Entertainment
Harrahs-HET scoops up all of Caesars Entertainment, including F-L
HET does not schedule the Flamingo-L for integration into Total Rewards, like
all the Vegas properties, a clue of sorts
HET sells the Flamingo-L to Carl Icahn (LVRJ article on the Aquarius vpFREE
inventory page) May 2006. Carl also owns the Strat and the AZ Charlies.
Independent Ultimate Rewards card established at Aquarius ( the new name)
Consolated "ACE" card introduced at the Aquarius linking all four casinos
Carl sells off the American Casino & Entertainment group to Whitehall Street
Real Estate Funds, a affiliate of Goldman Sachs (another article in the vpFREE
database, January 10, 2008)
How about that lineage?
***
My first question to BD is how did you get to do a new sign-up promo at the
Aquarius? If you had a old Flamingo-L card, Strat or AZ Charlies card and they
found you in the system you were not new. I guess you lucked out with
ancient Vegas history? Good for you.
Last Summer when I upgraded cards to ACE, they painstakenly quizzed me about
my old Strat and AZ Charlies cards. We are talking 2001 for my last Vegas
play. Of course my Flamingo-L card excluded me from any new sign-up promo, but
the boothling was trying to clean up the database. It didn't matter to her
that the line behind me was growing exponentially and I didn't care about any six
year old Vegas action.
The current Aquarius casino floor is roomy and comfortable. Carl put in new
machines and TITO exists at the best plays. But the room renovation did not
start until Jan/2008. This is a $19.7 million project due to be completed in
mid-May. Will the upgrades rival the Trop Expess across the street? TE now
has the best comfy beds on the river.
Back to the article-
They have messed with the new sign-up promo, the slot club rates and the food
offerings since the ACE card kicked-in.
The vpFree Aquarius database page has the slot club at $2/point for VP ($8
for the good games) and $600 coin-in for a $1 in cashback. This is incongruent
with the article for basic cashback. I do not know what is current.
As of the third week of January Aquarius was handing out flyers on the
Riverwalk for $10 in Freeplay for new or current members, good through Dec 2008. On
the other side of the handout lists the current new sign-up benefits:
"Earn up to $150 in cash & comps your first day of play"
Bonus Base Points
Aquarius T-shirt 35 pts
& Two Choice Buffets 500 pts
& One "Turn a 20 Into More" Entry 1,000 pts
& $100 Cash 2,500 pts
So Your Mileage May Vary at the Aquarius.
Other factoids:
The slot card is FIFO. You lose it (comps or cb) 12 months after earning it,
so use it.
The Splash Caberet has live free tunes, but does it rival the Tropicanna
Express for dance-ability?
The slot club opens at 7am, line forms 15 minutes earlier.
Don't throw away the pink sheet of chits given to you at check-in. Your
Free-play is one of those chits. Of course you get to walk through the slot club
to load it up.
Aquarius does has that outdoor concert venue. A show on the river can be a
unique experience. Can I do ZZ-Top again, please?
BS
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(http://music.
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