Poker Poker Poker!: [vpFREE] Short Term vs Long Term

I play $1.00, 100 way video poker at Wynn to which my wife and I
travel about four times per year for about 4 night stretches.
Without going into detail lets just say I am RFB so while I'm there
in total I bet a lot in a rather short period of time. Because of
the game I play, even with accruals, I probably avarage no more than
300 max hands of 100 way per hour. I not only never reach the long
run for dealt different dealt hands in a day or a year or likely a
lifetime. Even so I have read most everything printed by Bob Dancer
or any other writer on Video Poker. Two things make me write this
note. 1. Yesterday I read the continuing diatribe between Ron
Singer and the rest of the Video Poker Fraternity. I have found all
the discussions detrimental to our vdeo poker
hobby/profession/addiction or however you choose to describe what we
do. 2. Today I read an article in the London Financial Times by
Pablo Triana entitled "The 'Black Swan' Effect - Product Salesmen
Beware". For those unfamiliar with Naseem Nick Taleb,s book "The
Black Swan Theory" it is about events which have assigned
probabilities near zero, but when they do occur cause extreme
happiness or pain. This was the best selling book in the non
fiction category last year. It was likely more popular because of
problems with today's sub prime mortgage and other financial
derivatives which have resulted in 10s of $B in losses for the
Merrill Lynches and Citigroups this past year and may/has trigger a
recession in the US now.

The Financial times article suggests that Black Swans more often than
generally assumed where events that are assigned probabilities of 1
in a million years make a semi regular appearance every half decade
or so. The article goes on to say that Mr. Taleb's comments are not
well received in financial circles. He strikes at the foundation of
financial economics and the essential building blocks. By acting
as "Probablistic Cop" Mr. Taleb could force professionals to be more
honest with others and themselves.

Now you say what does this have to do with Singer and Video Poker. I
do know optimal play and most of the time I play it but I don't play
enough unique hands to be get to the long run. Sort run thinking
helps me decide how much risk/reward chance I want to take (J or B
vs. DDB) etc. as you don't get a perfect bell shaped curves in the
short runs. In fact you could get more positive or negative tails in
the short run than the long run suggests. Its happened to me. I have
had six figure $ trips in both directions in my very short
(mathematically) poker playing career.

I suggest we all think of some of the Singer philosophy as short term
only. Strange things do happen in the short run even though in the
long run all the pros and optimal theorists are mathematically
correct. Perhaps the amount of bitterness between the groups can die
down a bit and we can interest more new players so more pressure can
be exerted on the Casinos to have fair paytables for both the
Business and the Players. Denny Florence