This topic pops up from time to time. Part of the reason we keep discussing this is that there is no consensus on what 'long term' really means. I posted an article in the vpfree files section about long term a while ago. I think it is still there.
Harry brings up the point that different games have different 'long term' lengths.? Not only do you have to define the game, you have to define the meaning of long term.
In 9/6 JOB, the RF is only 2% of the return but is over 80% of the variance. If you take the royal out of the results, you get to the 'non royal long term' pretty quickly. The tremendous length of long term numbers comes from the royal contribution.
Let's say you play 403905 hands of JOB ( 10 royal cycles). If you are playing dollars, you have played $2,019,525 through the machine and your expected value is 0.995439 * $2,019,525 or -$9211.? Each RF away from your expected value of 10 has a tremendous affect on your results.?
43% of the time you will be more than 2 royals away from the expected value.? 27% of the time you will be more than 3 royals away from expected value.?
Bottom line is that unless you can predict how many royals you will get accurately, the long term is pretty darned long. And even after playing all these years, I can't predict how many royals I will get in a year.
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