Poker Poker Poker!: [vpFREE] Re: Short Term vs Long Term

denflo60 wrote:
> > I play $1.00, 100 way video poker at Wynn to which my wife and I
> > travel about four times per year for about 4 night stretches.
> > Without going into detail lets just say I am RFB so while I'm
> > there in total I bet a lot in a rather short period of time.
> > Because of the game I play, even with accruals, I probably avarage
> > no more than 300 max hands of 100 way per hour. I not only never
> > reach the long run for dealt different dealt hands in a day or a
> > year or likely a lifetime.

> krajewski.sa (worldbefree) writes:
> Maybe. If we count all hands, not just the
> bottom hand and assume 4 hrs play/day:
>
> 300/hr * 100/hand * 4 hrs/day * 4 days/trip = 480,000
> hands/trip * 4/trips a year = 1.9 MM hands/year.
>
> Lot's O hands and depending on your game, nearly 50 royal cycles.
> You may just sit on a black swan at Wynn on your next trip.

DRAlNBRAMAGE wrote:
> You stole my thunder. Even though I'm not the brightest light on the
> Christmas tree I was about to type out and post that formula about
> the 1.9 mega games per year which on any WinPoker auto play test will
> show almost exactly the return of the machine in the "long term"
> Actually long term is around 1 million hands.
> The Denny Florence persona of Mr [expletive deleted] made a stupid
> stupid error in posting that, or I'm not a nazi.
>
> So when are we going to ban the troll and all his personas??? This
> has been going on since the infamous fraudulent book came out. And
> what's more astounding to me is Mr [expletive deleted] is listed on
> the vpFREE links as a "Video Poker Writer" along with all the
> regular legit writers.

So, let me tackle this in pieces ...

worldbefree would appear to assert that because Dennis (denflo) might
be expected to see 1.9MM hand results play out, Dennis' statement
suggesting he "not only never reach(es) the long run for dealt
different dealt hands in a day or a year or likely a lifetime" is
false. However, I'd say that Dennis is on the right track.

First, it's important to clarify what the "long term" is, in relation
to a given reference point -- it's generally defined as the length of
play after which the range of probable results falls very close to the
expected result. The vpFREE FAQ sites one example of the concept
<extracting and paraphrasing>: Actual results for 10/7 DB play should
fall within 1.0% of expected results 95% of the time after 1,085,465
hands.

worldbefree's assumed 19,000 base deals of 100-play in a year is
extraordinarily short of what would be required to expect a "long
term" results distribution for the game return derived from dealt
paying hands alone (and that was the limited scope of Dennis'
statement). For that matter, because of the variance added by
multiline play, it's hardly sufficient play for overall game results
to approach a "long term" expectation.

------

Dennis is reasonably on track when it comes to a presumed "lifetime"s
play insufficiency re "long term" -- but a logic that might take this
fact and extend it to a justification to pursuing play such as that
proposed by Rob Singer is fallacious ... failure to play through a
period representing "long term" does not invalidate the principals of
advantage play -- which are a guide to maximizing play expectation,
not the probability of a profit.

------

DB might be considered predictably "off the wall" here, but I don't
sense any stab at humor. It appears to me that he finds wolrdbefree's
"long term" dispute valid, and that Dennis is either a RS front id --
or merely a stooge of RS.

I've discussed the "long term" argument. As far as Dennis, he's
sufficiently well established here that I consider any statement
suggesting he's other than who he represents himself to be insulting.

Concerning the specific statement "Actually long term is around 1
million hands": In absence of a specific reference to a game, the
long term is undefined. For a game such as DDB, the long term is
considerably longer than that.

- Harry