[vpFREE] Re: Short Term vs Long Term

--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "denflo60" <dennis.florence@...> wrote:
> I play $1.00, 100 way video poker at Wynn to which my wife and I
> travel about four times per year for about 4 night stretches.

I guess the big attraction in the short term on those big multiplays
is the chance of getting a dealt royal? The odds are 649,739 to 1
against and the payoff is 800 for 1. That's between an 8 and a 9 spot
in Keno, but usually in Keno the payoff is much more. On an average
IGT Keno game (7000-422-22-2-1, 95% return) it's 7000 for 1 on a 7
spot. The hold on 9/6 Jacks, assuming perfect play (which is a big if,
most mortal, non-Bob Dancer people have some non-trivial error rate
due to lighting, fatigue, boredom, cocktail waitress distraction,
wife's dope slap, etc.), is a half a percent, so on average you're
looking to be down 649,740 x $500 x 0.5% = $1,624,350, that's
including the $400,000 dealt royal, so, on average you expect to lose
a little over 2 million before you hit the big one for $400,000. Plan
on leaving a big fat tip for that "lucky win"? Might want to check
with the wife first.

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