Poker Poker Poker!: [vpFREE] Re: Help for the Mathematically Challenged

sechkardan wrote:
> > The Game: NSUD.
> > The Question: What is the frequency of natural 4OAKs occurring
> > both on the deal and post-draw? This involves both 4OAKs
> > (including 4 Ducks through 4 natural Aces) and 5OAKs that include
> > any natural 4OAK.
> > Working with a crayon on the back of one of Harry P's proverbial
> > envelopes, I'm guesstimating that a natural 4OAK will occur about
> > every 500-550 hands. Am I in the ball park?

Dick wrote:
> Being a little lazy this morning I took a quick look at Deuces Deluxe
> in winpoker since its' paytable is similar to NSUD ... it shows a
> natural 4oak occurs every 648 hands. To this number you would need to
> add in the 5oaks with a natural 4oak+deuce. Since these don't occur
> all that often, I would guesstimate the number is closer to 600 hands
> but it shouldn't be too hard to use the other side of that envelope
> if you want the exact value.

My mind is a little dead in arriving at a guesstimate, but I set aside
the envelope in favor of Wolf Video Poker software -- it permits game
analysis of a paytable with natural and wild hands split.

(Well, you have to fuss a bit: It'll only show the split analysis if
the natural and wild hands in question have different payouts ... I
added "1" to the natural quad and quint hand pays and subsequently
satisfied myself that the resulting hand statistics were unchanged
from a standard NSUD analysis. Plus, I had to use the Super Bonus
Deuces template -- for whatever reason, likely an oversight, the
natural/wild split option isn't otherwise applied to the 5K payout.)

This surfaced the following ending hand cycles for hands with a
natural quad:

Natural 4K: 643.6
5K w/ 1 deuce: 3039.3
Quad 2's: 5360.0

(Note, these values reflect play with the "basic" WVP strategy -- not
perfect play Winpoker strategy (this is why there's a small variation
from Dick's 648 cited value for quads).

When taken together, the frequency with which you end NSUD play with a
natural quad in the final hand is once in 483 hands. (give "sech" a
star :)

- Harry