From a purely EV perspective STP looks appealing. You get on average a multiplier having a value of 4.05 every 15 hands. So that is(14+4.05)/15=1.2033 vs the 1.2 (6/5) cost of the extra coin which adds ~ 0.25% to the return. So 9/6 Jacks without STP at 99.54% becomes 99.82% with STP from a strictly EV perspective.
Now of that additional return the contribution for the Royal with multiplier alone is more than the extra ~0.25% total EV boost. Assume you are playing dollars. On average each Royal needs to pay 1.2033*$4000 to meet the average return of the STP cost. So every time you get a non multiplied Royal you are down an extra $813 over a ~40,000 hand cycle. That cycle is ~$200K coin in for a loss in EV of ~0.4%. So even if all other hands are hitting the multiplier as expected if you don't ever get a Royal with multiplier you are playing against a 99.41% edge in Jacks.
So on average a Royal with multiplier will occur every 600,000 hands. That is getting to be a very long cycle. Some folks will get lucky and hit one ahead of schedule and occasionally for a big multiplier. I was fortunate enough to have a 10X Royal last year. On the other hand I know a person who has played well over $5M on dollar STP and only has one 2X Royal.
I've often eschewed the STP 6th coin and given up the extra EV for a significant decrease in variance. It also speeds the game up considerably. The lower EV in exchange for lower variance is often a reasonable trade off. On the other hand playing 9/6 DDB on the same machine that has 8/5 BP makes no sense to me and I've seen people do this often. Getting lower EV in exchange for higher variance is a bad decision in the long run.
SB
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <harry.porter@...> wrote:
When the 1 in 15 occurrence of the STP multiplier fails to connect with a good paying hand over an extended run (without even contemplating your sour run), it gets to be an expensive game. Of course, all it takes is one strong connection to compensate for an ugly session; and a couple to produce a handsome win -- something that fans of the game savor.
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