Poker Poker Poker!: RE: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!

In Brad and Jean's case ( at least for the last several years) I'd guess most of their profit comes from the extras and not the games themselves. So, your sd calculation isn't appropriate in this case. The variance of cash back is 0. You know exactly what your cash back will be.

As for long term, I think people get way too hung up on the concept. Take Jacks or Better (9/6) for example.

In this game, the royal flush is 80% of the variance and only 2% of the return. You hit a royal about every 40390 ( royal cycle for JOB). So, let's say you play 80780 hands ( 20 cycles). Your full house down to 1 pair will be very close to the expected value and even if they aren't very close, the effect on return isn't that great. SF has more variance than those hands but is only 0.55% of your overall return and only about 1.5% of your total variance. The real question of whether or not you have hit your 'long term' results is all tied up in the royal flush. After 20 cycles, p(20 royals) = 8.88%. Less than 9% of the time will you hit the 'expected' number of royals. Each royal away from the expected number after 20 cycles is 0.1% away from expected value. Hit 25 royals, and you'll be around 100% for your return. Hit 15 royals and you'll be around 99% for your return. I don't know of any way to predict how many royals I will hit in 20 cycles of JOB. If I did, I could very accurately predict what my results would be.

The royal return is such a dominant factor ( in JOB) that in the 'long term', its results swamp all the other results. We have all played for a couple of hours, not hit a royal and still had a positive session. It will happen. I doubt that many people have played 2 royal cycles, not hit a royal and been positive for that session.

Now, as you play more bonus type games, the variance is spread over more hand types but the concept is the same. In video poker, the very rare hands tend to pay the most and contribution the most to the variance.

---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <007@...> wrote:

What do you mean by the "long term?"

I hope I've done this right, since I was never very sure of myself
regarding how to use probability. I hope I'll be corrected if not:

Assume Jean and Brad play 800 hours per year. Assume they play 1000
hands per hour. Assume they always play 5 coin single line $1
machines with a variance of 40. They've played 20 million hands.
Their standard deviation is the square root of the number of hands
times the variance, or 28,284. They're 200,000 units, or 7 standard
deviations, ahead. If that isn't statistically significant, what is?

RWS wrote:

>Well congratulations on your results. But that information doesn't address my original observation that those who play VP advantage really don't understand that they are not playing in the long term as far as statistical significance. It's very likely that in your 25 years of play, your number of hands doesn't approach the long term either.
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>________________________________
> From: Queen of Comps <queenofcomps@...>
>To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
>Sent: Saturday, November 9, 2013 4:54 PM
>Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal Flush!
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>Playing over 25 years, only on positive VP plays (which include all cash
>extras, i.e., free play but not including comps), we have won an average of 40K
>per year.
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>------------------------------------------
>Jean
>$¢ott, Frugal Gambler
>http://queenofcomps.com/
>You can read my blog
>at
>http://jscott.lvablog.com/
>
>From: RWS
>Sent: Saturday, November 09, 2013 2:06 PM
>To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
>Subject: Re: [vpFREE] RE: Today I was dealt a Sequential Royal
>Flush!
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>How
>is it that anyone feels their playtime at video poker even approaches long term
>math? (millions of trials) I have yet to see anyone explain
>that on this site.
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>________________________________
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