Theres a post that disagrees with the position below. I agree with it -- the outcome (win or lose) will make our life better or worse (or our bankroll, if it's just a matter of betting), NOT whether we made a good bet...
but the problem is, when you play a game, you can't KNOW whether you'll be lucky or not, but you CAN control whether you are making a good bet and whether you are playing correctly. Likewise, with the airplane example, you can't KNOW if the sober pilot will hit a mountain or if the drunk one will land safely, but you CAN control which is safer to fly with overall -- only after the trip can you know what actually happened, but when you decide who to fly with, you don't have that information.
You have to make decisions in life (including in gambling) based on what you can control and what you know, and THEN you take action accordingly and HOPE that the good decision pans out. In live poker, you can "get your money in good" (make a bet and have it called, or call a bet, with the odds in your favor) but it's unusual that there's not still an element of chance left -- even if there's only one card that can save your opponent, that card is still in the deck and can be dealt - and over time, there will be occasions where it will be dealt. RARELY is your opponent "drawing dead" - NO way that they can get lucky and win.
And RARELY can you decide ahead of an event (which is when we have to make our decisions on most things) whether you will be "lucky" or not, all you can decide ahead of time is whether the odds are in your favor. Those who make good bets will win more often than those who do not, but those making good bets can get unlucky, and those making bad bets can get lucky, and we are best off making good bets and then hopiing that we don't get unlucky, which in the end determines how we did, than we are making bad bets and hoping we get lucky to offset our disadvantage.
--BG
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>
> > as Shack says, "It's not whether you win or lose; it's
> if it was a good bet".
> >
> That quote grates on me also. I'd rather be the lucky
> illiterate who hits Powerball or $10 million on Megabucks
> than drop 2 grand playing perfect dollar FPDW at the
> Frontier as my friend and I once did in 5 or 6 hours.
> I've had some of my most enjoyable wins at idiot slots and
> raffles while building ulcers losing at "advantage" VP and
> single-deck BJ.
> Ultimately it's not how good or bad the bet is it's whether
> you win or lose. Rather be in the plane with the drunk first
> time pilot who lands safely than the sober experienced pilot
> who flies into a mountain!
>
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