Here's another little nuance of counting how many times you have missed a certain hand ( quads from trips in this case). The number of quads you get should be about 1 in 423 ( JOB) regardless of where they come from.
I've had sessions where I have played 2000 hands, been dealt trips 40 times and missed all of them but filled in quads from hold a pair 5 times. So, my quad average is right on track, my quads from trips is way below average and my quads from a pair is way, way above average. The more conditions we put on a situation, the less likely it is to occur.
Let's say Joe's Bar and Casino is running a rogue program that throws out every 3rd quad that is made from trips. If you get enough samples, you will see this in the data. Unfortunately, it would take a lot of data for this to come out.
There is some value in repeats and not just numbers to prove a hypothesis.
If you play 423,000 hands and have 900 quads, that tells you one thing. If you have 100 sessions of 4230 hands each and most of your sessions have 8 - 12 quads with a few very low quad counts to sum up to 900 quads total, that tells you something different.
There's an awful lot of information in our play. The tough part is gathering the data from each session. Record keeping is more difficult than most people think. Making a 4 foot putt once is no big deal. Making it 10 times in a row is much more difficult. We just weren't built for simple, repetitive tasks.
I've had maybe 250 royal flushes in my life ( many of those from 50 play and 100 play). I didn't break down what suit they were or what the order of the cards was in the hand. If I make that a condition of my experiment, I will find all kinds of 'odd' occurrences.
Back to the 0 for 35 on dealt trips on 10 play. That certainly qualifies as a rare event and might make you suspicious. But there are some mitigating factors:
a) did not keep written records
b) estimating the true number of the occurrences
c) picking out the variable of interest after the data was collected
Humans are very bad at simple, repetitive tasks. That's why computers were invented. Trying to remember session results in your head is difficult for all but the simplest conditions. Written records are better but still subject to error.
Next time you want to count quads, find a very patient person to record hands played, dealt trips, quads from trips and total quads. Compare your memory of the session to his numbers. I'll bet a lot of dollars they don't agree.
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "dunbar_dra" <h_dunbar@...> wrote:
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> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Misscraps <misscraps@> wrote:
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> > What I guess I am not expressing is that while playing 10 play I got dealt three of a joking Aces like 10 times, trip 2s say 5 times, trip 4s 5 times, trip 3s 2 times, trip kings 3 times, trip 10s once, 9s 2 times, 8s 3 times, 7s twice, 6s 3 times, 5a twice, and yet in the entire time only got at most (I wasn't counting) quad 7s once out of the entire results.
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> Looks to me like the games were biased in your favor on the deal: twice as many trip Aces as any other card!!
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> > Add that all up and it we are talking maybe 35 instances to dealt trips x 10 lines, yet only one final line of any quads. You should get the final quad card holding 3 dealts more often than 1 in 47 times, cause u already saw 5 cards, isn't it basically the redraw of 1 card is a 1 in 46 chance, and the redraw of the second empty space is 1 in 45... I'm not mathematically educated enough to give u the exact probability for 1 line with 3 dealt, but I'm getting that on average you should end up getting about 7 or more final quad results in my 10 play 35 instances of trips dealt example and 1 final quad seems a bit odd!
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> > The thing is, this is not the only time this has happened to me over the past year or three. it seems all too common for 5 play, which is what I usually play, over and over and over (sorry I wasn't counting, but I guess I should), 3 of a kind dealt on multi-lines, and no final quads or very few (fewer than expected, not more than expected).
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> > Yet I do get quads holding 1, 2, or even 0 cards.
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> > The averages seem to work out pretty much as expected for single line. I am specifically talking about multi line oddity. And 3 play seems too be more normal than 5 or 10 play.
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> > Hope this is a little more understandable to those of you who just don't want to believe the random number generators could be off.
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> My last time getting dealt 4-to-a-royal in 10-play, I drew 2 RF's. There's less than a 2% chance of drawing 2 or more RF's in that situation. That's roughly the same chance of being blanked on quads 9 times in a row when drawing to trips. Maybe the multilines are compensating for the dearth of quads by giving out more RF's. ;>)
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> Seriously, it sounds to me that you are keeping a very loose count of your results on multiline quads. As has been said many times, we tend to remember the bad streaks better than the good streaks.
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> If you are truly interested in this topic, then you should keep an accurate log going forward. I'd suggest forcing yourself to write down something BEFORE you draw to trips. That way, you'll avoid the bias of only remembering the times you're blanked. If you forget to write down a note before a particular draw, then that draw doesn't count in your stats regardless of the outcome.
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> --Dunbar
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