I find that, for most people (especially video poker players), the best
definition of "random" is "completely unpredictable."
However, the word "honest" is much more important for casino games. When
one approaches a video poker machine for the first time, one gets the
impression that the cards are dealt from a simulated deck of playing
cards. This gives the impression that every unseen card has equal
probability of appearing at any time, just as if they were being dealt
from a well-shuffled deck.
Regulations in Nevada, Louisiana, and perhaps some other jurisdictions,
mandate that the machines be honest by this definition. Machines in some
other areas, especially NY racinos and online casinos, are not
necessarily honest and may return much less than 99.54% on 9/6 Jacks or
Better, no matter how accurately you play.
But being random is not enough for a game to be honest. After all, reel
slots in Nevada are random, but the symbols do not have equal
probability. Each symbol is biased with an assigned probability. We can
calculate the expected return of an honest video poker game, but that
can't be done for a reel slot because we do not know those assigned
probabilities.
Clumpiness is a natural characteristic of randomness. If random numbers
had smooth distribution, then we would be able to predict that a machine
is more likely to hit a big payoff because it hadn't been paying off.
But we can not make any such prediction. The probability of a royal on
the next play is the same as it was at any time in the past, even if it
just hit a royal.
If you keep track of all payoffs for tens of thousands of plays on a
particular machine, you can then use statistics to calculate the
probability that the machine is honest, but that is about all you can do
with that data.
So all you have to understand about randomness is that it means
unpredictable. What is a "good idea" is to accept the calculations of
the analysis programs and always follow that mathematically derived
strategy no matter what the machine has been doing. Of course, that
advice applies only in well-regulated jurisdictions; in other venues,
the best advice is to not play at all.
Dan
--
Dan Paymar, Developer of Optimum Video Poker
Analyzer/Trainer for Windows, Mac, Linux
Web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
--
Dan Paymar, Developer of Optimum Video Poker
Analyzer/Trainer for Windows, Mac, Linux
Web site at www.OptimumPlay.com
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