will_gamble2 wrote:
> Is it +EV to raise the number of hands you play on a multi hand
> machine as your winnings grow and then come back down at the same
> increments.
> For example, you are playing quarters three hands with a buy in of
> $100 and go to 5 hands at $250 and 10 hands at $500.
>
> Is this a better method than staying at 3 hands all the time?
A reality check prompts me to comment on a key limitation under which Kelly betting considerations have limited application to my optimal play choices ...
I can see Kelly coming into play were I looking at an "all you can eat" positive buffet; in other words, where my opportunity for an edge isn't limited.
However, it's generally the case that I am playing under constraints that restrict the amount of play that's appealing. The most frequent constraint is that I'm playing a negative expectation machine, where fixed promotional cash makes the play viable.
In such cases, there's a cap on the desirable total coin-in, and Kelly considerations go out the window. Instead, I'm left looking at options to play through that coin-in in a manner that best optimizes my goals re total play time and bankroll risk exposure.
I'll wistfully contemplate that someone has access to a 100-play FPDW machine (or otherwise has an opportunity with no bound on the positive ER) and can put this discussion into practice.
- H.
