It a very simple equation and you should memories it.
C = 1-(P-1/P) to the power of N
So 46.3 - 1 = 45.3
1-(45.3 / 46.3) ^ 500 = 99.99% chance of hitting at least 1.
If as you say, you didn't get one in 1.5 hours, it's a media event. Perhaps the third most unlikely thing every to happen.
If you were wondering what the 1st and 2ond most unlikely things were, the answer is: Just Coincidences.
~FK
--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, "Jeff McDaniel" <jmcdaniel@...> wrote:
>
> I have a question for the math folks. If I understand the calculations correctly, on the deal, I will receive dealt trips about once every 46.3 hands. I was recently playing and did not receive dealt trips for about an hour and a half. Assume I play 1,000 hands per hour, so I received 1 dealt trip in 1,500 trials. How unusual was that result? Is standard deviation the proper way to determine/express how unusual the result was? Is there a website you can point me to help me learn how to perform the calculation myself? Many thanks in advance for your help. Jeff
>
