Thanks for this Frank, cannot take it all in ATM as I 'should' be sleeping, doc appt' tomorrow & hopefully, shopping !! I'll read it in full asap. I'm sure it is good. I skimmed it. So, at this point, intelligence does not matter in VP? maybe, I should wait to ask questions..hehe..
TTYL,
~ ¤(¯`*•.¸(¯`*•.¸ Meredith ¸.•*´¯)¸.•*´¯)¤ ~
My New Years Resolution is "That I will be less laz"
--- On Sun, 1/2/11, Frank <frank@progressivevp.com> wrote:
From: Frank <frank@progressivevp.com>
Subject: [vpFREE] Re: machine's "The Highway to Hell"
To: vpFREE@yahoogroups.com
Date: Sunday, January 2, 2011, 11:33 PM
For the post this is a reply to, see bottom.
Ah...all becomes clear. A photographic memory can get you into a lot of trouble in VP if you are good at noticing patterns and search for them in random events. You WILL find them, but they cannot be used as predictors of the future and should be ignored. In this case, intelligence can be a handicap, unless one has had special training to avoid this mental trap. College courses in probability span years and still fail to overcome deeply ingrained beliefs we are exposed to both as children and as adults.
I have a subheading in my book entitled "Faces in the Clouds" that covers just this case. It is the inclusion of this type of information in my book (absent in other VP tomes) which prompted me to state with confidence on my website that my book is for everyone , even people that don't play progressives or gamble at all. Rather than restate what I have already published, I'll summarize with a new analogy I recently came up with while guest-hosting a radio show. Let's open with a quote:
Highway to Hell Part 1:
There was no question as to the intelligent design of the canals of Mars. The only question was, "Which side of the telescope that intelligence was on?" Where we have strong emotions, we're liable to fool ourselves.
Carl Sagan, Cosmos (Blues for a Red Planet) (summarized)
Imagine you are traveling down a road with "adopt a highway" mile markers every mile, stating the families responsible for each segment's upkeep. You notice:
Mile one belonging to the Robinson's is clean.
Mile two belonging to the Smith's is dirty.
Mile three belonging to the Mortensen's is spotless.
Mile four belonging to the Curmudgeon's is filthy.
And so on...
Almost every person on the planet, myself included, would at first conclude that the Mortensen family must have their act together, and that the Curmudgeon family (as well as having a ridiculous name) must be dropping the ball. It might even be true; the markers provide some information, incomplete and misleading though it may be. Consider that we are making this dogmatic judgment without the slightest inclusion of the random distribution of trash along the road. This common mental deficit in nearly all humans is related to the phenomenon know as "The base rate fallacy", or "base rate neglect". The families who have adopted a stretch of highway are responsible for cleaning, they are not, however, the ones making the mess. The random distribution of trash by littering travelers is by far the more important piece of information required to make a sound judgment about the true cause of trash placement along the route. However, this information is neither
provided nor available. So, as the flawed beings that we are, our minds fill in the blanks with what is available, which in this case turns out to be the same thing scattered about our mythical highway...garbage.
Now that you should have the basic idea, let's add to it and make the analogy even more applicable to video poker.
Highway to Hell Part 2:
Now imagine you are traveling down a lonely road that was the target of college hazing by the well known fraternity Delta Iota Kappa (DIK for short). Prospective members had to plant "adopt a highway" mile markers every mile on a stretch of unmaintained road, with either made up names, or the names of the school's staff. You then travel down this route, with completely random distributions of trash, where the mile markers are contrived and literally tell you less than nothing... and notice that:
Mile one belonging to Dean Smith is clean and bald.
Mile two belonging to Professor Cully is dirty and smelly.
Mile three belonging to the Dickless family is spotless and flat.
Mile four belonging to the Bush family is filthy and disorganized.
And so on...No offense to anyone real is intended.
Now it is the time for introspection and honesty. Assuming you knew nothing of the ruse, can you really tell me you wouldn't draw any conclusion about the names printed on the signs, or at least suspect possible negligence of the Bush Family, after seeing the state of their mile???..???
Of course you would. We all would! It is human nature. But here is the real point: THERE ARE NO MILE MARKERS. It is one continuous stretch of unmaintained road, that simply has imaginary lines of demarcation that force our minds down one-way dead end streets. This is the very sophomoric prank we play on our own minds every time we change machines, leave a casino, go to sleep and get up, alter strategy on a hunch, put on a different sweater, etc...ad infinitum... Anything that could possibly be used as a way point in our thoughts to measure success or failure between "here---and---there" will be grasped by our subconscious and used to fool us. Random events have no patterns beyond the ones we create in our own minds that is the very definition of random, "Having no specific pattern, purpose, or objective". We just don't know when to leave well enough alone.
The only way to win, is not to play the game.
~War Games
~Frank Kneeland: Author of The Secret World of Video Poker Progressives. www.progressive.com
Referances: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Base_rate_fallacy
http://www.answers.com/topic/randomness
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--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, Meredith And Kenny <meredithandkenny@...> wrote:
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> Hi Frank,
> No, not slots. Just VPDW of late. The patterns were different on one particular machine that I had played and won on several time. I have a photographic memory and easily see patterns. I know the patterns change so, my presumption is that they changed the chip ? If not, the original chip is designed to acclimate to patterns of disciplined playing. Every since someone told me that my hunches would not pay off, I adhered & have been playing by the book and won a few days & then, the pattern change.
> Last night was Amazing & I hope that everyone here has a wonderful prosperous 2011 !
>
>
> ~ ¤(¯`*•.¸(¯`*•.¸ Meredith ¸.•*´¯)¸.•*´¯)¤ ~
> Life is like a coin. You can spend it any way you wish, but you only spend it once.
> Lillian Dickson
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