The recession will happen if and only if everybody remains convinced
that there will be a recession.
Think about it. The US economy is as fundamentally sound as ever.
Unemployment is low, inflation is low, productivity is high. The
intrinsic elements that make the US economy powerful still exist.
This despite the naysayers and pundits, who, it should be noted,
have been wrong before.
The mortgage "crisis" is anything but that. Not for the people who
have been sitting on the sidelines with cash in their hands, waiting
to jump back in. Not for the banks, who actually make LOTS of money
on the foreclosures (the terms of those loans ENSURE that this will
be the outcome), not to mention freeing up funds originally lent at
ultra-low interest rates. When someone loses, someone else MUST
gain. It's axiomatic.
The weak dollar? Well, hooray, if you're an exporter. Your goods are
now more competitive. And the trade deficit--the subject of so much
hand-wringing-
So much of the economy is based on confidence and perceptions-
to and including the worth of a dollar, which is called "fiat"
currency, meaning it has no intrinsic value. The people scaring
everyone are the pundits and politicians who stand to profit from
causing a panic--most notably, the Demos who THRIVE on trouble and
fear, especially in this election year when they want to consolidate
their power by taking over the one remaining branch of the US
government that they do not control--the executive branch.
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