--- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.
<nightoftheiguana20
>
> --- In vpFREE@yahoogroups.
wrote:
> > You aren't terribly
> > specific, but since a deuces game with a strong return can be
> > inferred, I'm assuming that you're talking about playing $.25
FPDW
> > (say w/ .2% added cash incentive). In that case, it's my
impression
> > that a Kelly jump to $.50 play would be called for well before
> > achieving a $16K bankroll (perhaps at as little as $8K).
>
> 8K would be about the absolute minimum to play $.50, and how long
> would that last? One bet down and you're under again, and now
> overbeting Kelly, exactly what you should not be doing. (You
> understand that "bankroll" is a moving, not a fixed number?)
Better to
> build up some headroom before moving up. My recommendation: 16K (8
> royals). If you wanted to be more agressive you could double your
bets
> at 6 royals (12K) but then go back down if you drop back to a 4
royal
> pad. The key is that you never want to have less than about a 4
royal
> pad, or whatever the exact Kelly number is. But more is always OK,
> more than OK, it is also safer (less risk).
Here are some Kelly bankrolls of interest:
Harry's FPDW, with 0.2% cashback:
25c Kelly bankroll is $2785.
50c Kelly bankroll is $5570.
NOTI might be considering FPDW without cashback:
25c Kelly bankroll is $3655.
50c Kelly bankroll is $7310.
NOTI's suggested $16K bankroll for 50c FPDW would mean the player
was betting about half-kelly in a no-cashback game, and about 1/3
Kelly in a 0.2% cashback game.
Most pros I know underbet Kelly intentionally, for reasons NOTI has
mentioned. If you bet 1/2 the Kelly fraction, you still get
something like 75% of the bankroll growth.
Harry is correct that betting full Kelly requires a much more
aggressive bet-to-bankroll relationship than using a static RoR
measure. For example, if one played 25c FPDW, 0.2% cashback with a
$2785 bankroll (and kept playing, regardless of bankroll
fluctuation)
recommended Kelly bankroll, then you lower the RoR to 2.3%. Of
course, not changing your bet size when bankroll fluctuates defeats
the whole idea of Kelly betting, but I'm giving these figs to
illustrate how aggressive Kelly betting is. (which I think is the
point both Harry and NOTI are making)
--Dunbar
Earn your degree in as few as 2 years - Advance your career with an AS, BS, MS degree - College-Finder.net.
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