Tom wrote: "Maybe I don't understand it, then. Let's say I assume the royal flush cycle is 40,000. After 4 million hands on a particular machine, I've hit 20 royals. Without including an initial estimate, what would Bayes' Theorem say is the chance that the cycle is more than 40,000?"
That's 100 cycles, the SD is sqrt(100) = 10, so down 80 would be -8SD. I don't need Bayes Theorem to know I've likely got a problem. -8SD is of course possible, but highly unlikely. Really, in the real world, if you go down 5 cycles without a hit, you should be thinking of what your options are, it might be time to be looking elsewhere or consider going to gaming. 5 cycles without a hit is of course possible, and will happen the more you play, but it's a signal, the yellow light is on. You should seriously consider whether or not to throw more dollars down that rat hole. You don't want to get caught in another American Coin Slot Scandal. Stuff like that could bust out some big bankrolls. You're naive if you think stuff like this doesn't happen in today's world. Remember what Bernie Sanders says, the system is rigged. Don't get caught in a bear trap. Remember also, there's a selective bias to gambling, you only hear from the lucky ones about how easy it is to make money, the losers quietly sink away, like old heroin junkies, never to be heard from again.
Posted by: Tom Robertson <007kzq@gmail.com>
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