This is easier than it may first seem. Suppose 1M hands at $5 a spin. 2.5% of that is $125,000.
So now you will just want to calculate the probability of losing $125,000 or less. With a flat game like 7/5 BP, you can pretty safely go with expected value after a million hands. That game drops roughly 2%, so your expected value is about $25,000. To lose would be to run just awful. Assuming everything else besides royals runs about average (which it almost has to be on this game) you'd have to be 6.25 royals below average.
I have forgotten the math, but there is a fairly accurate and simple formula that will tell you the odds of getting fewer than 17 events when the expected number of events is 23. So, for example, if you were flipping a coin 46 times, what is the odds of only getting 16 heads (or less). The answer to that question will be very close to the correct answer for this situation.
If this is a real life game, you've got a decent return, but nothing special. If you crank out 1000 hands an hour, you make roughly $25 an hour. As for bankroll.... This game will be about as mellow as can be and I'm thinking 20K should be viable, though that assumes you have other money for things like eating.
Much easier that doing the math is to run a bankroll analysis on one of the many VP programs out there.
That will, in effect, put your actual break-even point at a loss of $25,000 on the game. It should tell you P(losing 25K or less), which will also be the answer to your question. The VP program I have allows you to include cashback, which then allows you to simply look to see the answer with no need to do any further analysis to understand what the output means. What you should see, if you have done it right, is an "average" result of +25,000 for a million hands and the frequency of results that deviate by more than $25,000 will be very low (and only half of those will be losses) If the software is good, it will also give you the probability curves for all the outcomes.
QZ
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Posted by: what7do7you7want@yahoo.com
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