Driving to Harrahs AC about 9 years ago my wife asks me if I think someone ever sat down to play VP and hit a dealt royal on their very first play. So I ask her when we are playing (our typical play time is about 3-4 hours before boredom sets in) how many people does she see sit down to play? I can't remember what she said, but it seemed reasonable.
We then start conservatively adjusting that number upward. For example, I do remember we doubled it to account for the times when we are not playing during the day. Then we multiplied it by X because we can only see about 1/X of the VP machines in the casino when we are playing at our favorite machines. Then we assumed there were Y large casinos like Harrahs AC in the country. Then we multiplied it by 365 for every day in the year. Then we divided it by 650,000 (1/650000 chance of a dealt royal). I don't remember what number we quickly came up with, but it was a lot more than 1. So by our very rough and crude estimate there were many times in a year when someone sits down to a VP machine and hits a dealt royal on their first play.
We get there. Grab our coffee and danish. Since down at our favorite machines. Put our money in. And on my first play I hit a dealt royal.
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Posted by: Jim O'Donnell <jpod_120853@yahoo.com>
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