The major "uncertainty" in video poker is the play error rate caused by strategy mistakes (making the wrong hold) and by machine issues such as sticky buttons or bad lighting causing a misread of the cards particularly the distinction between spades and clubs. But there are also some minor "uncertainties", such as getting robbed or cheated or the "uncertainties" of spending time in a high crime environment or the "uncertainties" of long term effects on health from second hand smoke and sitting and staring at a poorly lit computer screen for long periods of time.
If there were no "uncertainties" in video poker, it would be mathematically correct to always bet as close as possible to the optimal Kelly fraction of your bankroll, however, because there are "uncertainties" in video poker, it's safer to bet less than the optimal Kelly fraction to provide some guardband for the "unknown unknowns". Exactly how much guardband to choose has always been somewhat of an art.
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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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