Bob wrote: "When you are good, sometimes you are over-royaled and sometimes you are under-royaled, but these things eventually average out and when they do, you're going to be ahead of the game."
That's the Monte Carlo fallacy. As long as there's no regression to the mean, things don't "average out". Just because you had a bad run, you can't expect to get a good run to compensate, if you could you could double your betsize and have the best of it. What happens is, if you have an edge, that edge eventually is greater than the standard deviation. The crossover is at Nzero (variance/edge/edge hands).
Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
Gambler's fallacy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something h...
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Posted by: nightoftheiguana2000@yahoo.com
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