This is what Alan is going to be up against in the dice challenge. The Wiz is expected to get to 25 points by the 90th roll. Excluding the one combination that makes 2-2, there are 10 combinations out of 36 that will gain the Wiz one point. Thats an average of one point every 3.6 rolls. So 3.6 times 25. Points is 90 rolls.
Meanwhile, Alan's expectation is to get to 25 points in 144 rolls. There is only one hard 4 on the dice, so the frequency is 36 times 4 = 144.
Alan will be a major dog in this contest. He will have to average a hard 4 about every 20 rolls or so to have any chance of winning.
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Posted by: mickeycrimm@yahoo.com
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