Appreciate the feedback, Bob. You grasp that my comment was prompted by the posted notion that one never reaches the "long term". I'm hardly suggesting that my "guidelines" are the only viable play approach -- there's no question that there are worthy and attractive higher variance plays that fall outside those guidelines.
What I find most notable is that a sentiment of long-term results being unattainable potentially can tempt a player into some unwise play strategies. Mistaking variance for unattainability might suggest inappropriately discounting improbable hits even though such hits, when considered in aggregate over a lifetime of play, are statistically significant and very tangible.
In my experience, players who largely run a play profit year after year, seldom sweat whether they'll ever hit a rare jackpot. They simply focus on those factors that keep their play expectations strong, with reasonable reliability. (Repeatedly pressing a significant advantage is key.) So it is, for those with such concerns, I identify those factors that tend to make play more reliably profitable ... assuming opportunities at hand that fit the bill.
---In vpFREE@yahoogroups.com, <bobdancervp@...> wrote :
Harry wrote: Under that definition, I and most other knowledgeable players can
reasonably look to "reach the long run" in a very managable length of
time. All this requires is the discipline to restrict gaming to plays
having a reasonable edge (0.5-1.0% min), keep play variance moderate,
and not excessively stretch one's bankroll.
I have no problem with that explanation in general. The half-percent-at-least edge goal is sometimes elusive if you want to play $50 a hand or more. The "keep play variance moderate" part is a bit tougher when you're talking Ultimate X. That was the whole point of the article. Put in other words, if you can afford to play dollar Ten Play, then playing the Ultimate X version of the same game should be limited to quarter Five Play or less. IF you can find a good pay schedule at that level (good luck!)
Whether I'm going to receive the dealt straight or better followed by a dealt biggie hand or not is not part of what I worry about --- or what I dream about. It's nice to hit a big jackpot --- but the sizes possible on this game are hardly life changing.
Bob
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Posted by: harry.porter@verizon.net
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