RE: [vpFREE] Bob Dancer's LVA - 16 DEC 2014

NOTI wrote: I would propose that good bets are ones that end with a net win in the
tax year. Under that definition, it's not whether or not a particular
bet wins or loses, but the net of bets for the tax year has to be a win.
If it's a loss, there's a tax penalty (gambling losses can not legally
be carried forward) that has to be accounted for.








I strongly dislike that definition. It's actually contrary
to Shack's original quote.



Shack was referring to a good bet being one with positive
EV. NOTI is saying it doesn't matter whether it has positive EV or not, it's
whether you win or lose. And in particular, it's whether you win or lose in the
current tax year.



Let's say somebody is ahead $150,000 for the year right now.
Under NOTI's definition, EVERY "reasonably small" bet is a good bet. It doesn't
matter whether you go down to $1 ahead for the year in the next two weeks. The
only thing that matters is that you're ahead. An uncoordinated person could
play HORSE with LeBron James for $10,000 a pop. This is a good gamble so long
as he quits after 14 of these games? Hardly.



I do not think most people believe that being $1 ahead for
the year is as good as being ahead $100,000.



Tax year considerations are important. And it certainly
makes for an interesting discussion about how your gambling strategy should
change near year end because of the asymmetric tax laws regarding wins and
losses. But most of what I consider to be a "good bet" has little to do with my
annual score.




[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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